Prediction for match PSV Eindhoven — Heerenveen

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

PSV Eindhoven and Heerenveen will face off on February 4, 2026, in the KNVB Beker. According to the 1X2 odds, PSV is the clear favorite: their win is priced at 1.40, a draw at 5.15, and Heerenveen's victory at 6.29. The probabilities are distributed as follows: PSV - 66.92%, draw - 18.19%, Heerenveen - 14.89%. These figures highlight PSV as the match favorite. Additional markets for totals and both teams to score also suggest an expectation of a high-scoring game, but the main focus of the bookmakers is on PSV's success.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, PSV recorded the following results: a 3-0 win against Feyenoord (01.02.2026), a 1-2 loss to Bayern Munich (28.01.2026), and a 2-2 draw with NAC Breda (24.01.2026). Heerenveen played to a 1-1 draw with Utrecht (01.02.2026), lost 0-2 to Groningen (18.01.2026), and defeated Waalwijk 3-1 (15.01.2026). Over the last five matches, PSV averages 58.4% possession, 3 yellow cards, 10.8 fouls, and 1 offside. Heerenveen averages 60% possession, 0.8 yellow cards, 10 fouls, and 2 offsides. In their last head-to-head on December 6, 2025, Heerenveen lost 0-2 to PSV.

Goal Totals Statistics

PSV consistently plays in high-scoring matches: over 2.5 goals occurred in 5 of their last 5 matches, while for Heerenveen, it was 3 out of 5. The average goals over 5 games are 3.2 for PSV and 3 for Heerenveen. For goals scored: PSV - 1.6, Heerenveen - 1.8, for goals conceded: PSV - 1.6, Heerenveen - 1.2. In the first half, PSV saw over 1.5 goals 4 times out of 5, while Heerenveen saw it 1 out of 5. In the second half, PSV had over 1.5 goals only once out of 5, while Heerenveen had it 3 out of 5. Regarding goal intervals, PSV most frequently scores in the first 15 minutes (40%) and concedes between the 31-45 and 76-90 minutes (33% each). Heerenveen scores most often at the end of halves: 31-45 and 76-90 (33% each) and concedes after the break and at the end (46-60 and 76-90 - 33% each). Overall, both teams show a high goal profile, and PSV's frequency of over 2.5 goals is at its peak. In this context, betting on over 3.5 goals at 1.87 seems justified: both teams regularly participate in high-scoring matches, and their average goal figures support this choice.

Corner Totals Analysis

Over the last 5 matches, PSV averages 7.6 corners, while Heerenveen averages 5.2. PSV had over 9.5 corners in 4 out of 5 matches, while Heerenveen had it in 2 out of 5. Among the available corner totals, the closest to the sum of average values (12.8) is the 12.5 line, but the nearest offered is only 9.5. Meanwhile, the odds for over 9.5 corners are 1.34, and under 9.5 is 2.90. Generally, both teams tend to be active in corners, especially PSV, making a bet on the over for corners logical. In terms of corner outcomes, considering only average values, PSV appears to be the more active side.