Prediction for match Puebla — Leon

Odds and Probabilities for the Match Outcome

In Liga MX, Puebla will face Leon on April 11. The odds for a Puebla win are set at 2.31, for Leon at 2.88, and a draw is at 3.42. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Puebla - 40.36%, Leon - 32.37%, draw - 27.26%. This indicates no clear favorite, although Puebla has a slight edge in probability. Among the main markets, the bet "Both Teams to Score: Yes" with odds of 1.58 stands out as attractive.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Puebla played as follows: 04/04/2026 - Puebla vs Juarez - 1-1, 22/03/2026 - Santos Laguna vs Puebla - 2-1, 14/03/2026 - Puebla vs Necaxa - 0-0. In the same period, Leon's results were: 05/04/2026 - Leon vs Atlas - 2-0, 22/03/2026 - Atletico San Luis vs Leon - 1-2, 19/03/2026 - Guadalajara vs Leon - 5-0. In their head-to-head on 09/11/2025, Leon lost to Puebla 1-2. Additional stats show Puebla's average possession is 52.8%, Leon's is 56.2%. Yellow cards: Puebla 2.2, Leon 2. Fouls: 12.6 vs 14.2, offsides: Puebla 0.4, Leon 2.2. These figures indicate both teams are evenly matched in intensity and discipline.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Over a series of five matches, Puebla's average total goals are 2.4, Leon's are 3.8. Both teams score 1.2 goals per game, but Leon concedes significantly more - 2.6 compared to Puebla's 1.2. For over 2.5 goals: Puebla has 3 out of 5, Leon 4 out of 5. In the first half, Puebla never had more than 1.5 goals, Leon had over in 3 out of 5. In the second half, Puebla had over 1.5 goals in 4 out of 5, Leon in 2 out of 5. Puebla most often scores between 46-60 minutes (38%), while Leon scores in two intervals: 31-45 and 76-90 minutes (25% each). Puebla most often concedes late: 61-75 and 76-90 minutes (50% each), Leon in the 31-45 minute interval (43%). Given that both teams regularly score and concede, and with the over 2.5 goals trend and goal figures supporting a high-scoring profile, the bet on "Both Teams to Score: Yes" seems justified.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Puebla averages 4.8 corners per game, Leon 4.4. In their last 5 matches, both teams had over 9.5 total corners in 3 out of 5 games. Among corner totals, the line closest to their average sum (9.2) is 9.5: over 9.5 corners is at 1.85, under 9.5 is at 1.89. For corners outcome, Puebla is the favorite at 1.97. Overall, expect at least 9-10 corners in the match, and betting on over 9.5 corners seems logical given the frequency and average stats of both teams.