Prediction for match Puebla — Toluca

Match Analysis: Puebla vs Toluca

On January 31, in Liga MX, Puebla will face Toluca. According to the 1X2 odds, Toluca is the clear favorite: their victory is priced at 1.62, a draw at 3.90, and a win for Puebla at 5.00. The probability percentages are as follows: Puebla win - 18.63%, draw - 23.88%, Toluca win - 57.49%. This setup reflects the high estimation of Toluca's chances, considering the current form and statistics of the teams. The match promises to be interesting in terms of the fight for initiative, as Toluca has been showing confident results in recent games.

Team Statistics and Scores

In their last five matches, Puebla has had an average ball possession of 45.2%, yellow cards - 2.8, fouls - 14.6, offsides - 1.6. Toluca's ball possession is higher at 55.2%, with yellow cards also at 2.8, fouls - 15.6, offsides - 1.2. Puebla's last three matches ended as follows: 18.01.2026 Cruz Azul - Puebla 1-0, 13.01.2026 Puebla - Mazatlán 2-1, 10.01.2026 Atlas - Puebla 1-0. Toluca's last three matches ended: 15.01.2026 Toluca - Santos Laguna 3-1, 11.01.2026 Monterrey - Toluca 0-1, 15.12.2025 Toluca - Tigres UANL 11-9. In their head-to-head on 14.09.2025, Toluca defeated Puebla 3-1.

How Many Goals Will Be in the Puebla vs Toluca Match

In the last five games, both teams have had three matches with over 2.5 goals, indicating a tendency for high-scoring games. Puebla's average goals per match is 2.2, while Toluca's is 2.8. Puebla scores an average of 0.8 and concedes 1.4, while Toluca scores 1.8 and concedes 1. By halves, Puebla has two matches over 1.5 in the first half and one in the second, while Toluca has two in the first and three in the second half. Puebla most often scores between 0-15 minutes (60%), and Toluca between 46-60 minutes (60%). For goals conceded, Puebla is notable in the 31-45 minute interval (33%), and Toluca in the 46-60 interval (40%). All this suggests that the match could be high-scoring, especially considering Toluca's attacking potential and Puebla's not-so-reliable defense. Over 2.5 goals at 1.74 looks like a logical choice, considering the balance of attacking and defensive metrics of both sides and the frequency of over 2.5 goals.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Puebla averages 5.4 corners per match, while Toluca averages 4.8. In the last five games, Puebla has had four matches with over 9.5 corners, and Toluca only one. Considering the total corners, the line closest to the average sum (10.2) would be 9.5. The odds for over 9.5 corners are 1.82, and for under 1.92. Toluca is the favorite on corners with odds of 1.44. Given that Puebla regularly delivers many corners, and the overall average of both teams exceeds 10, a bet on over 9.5 corners seems justified. You could also consider betting on Toluca to win on corners, given their attacking style and high ball possession.