Prediction for match QPR — Derby County

Match Preview

In the English Championship on April 25, QPR will face Derby County. According to the 1X2 odds, Derby County is the favorite with odds of 2.27 for their win, while QPR has odds of 3.00 and a draw is at 3.40. The probability distribution is 41.25% for Derby County to win, 31.21% for QPR, and 27.54% for a draw. These figures show Derby County's advantage ahead of the match, but the gap isn't significant, which could add some tension to the game.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, QPR averages 49.2% possession, receives 3.6 yellow cards, commits 12.2 fouls, and is caught offside 1.4 times per game. Derby County shows a slightly higher possession rate at 50.2%, receives 2.6 yellow cards, commits 15 fouls, and is also caught offside 1.4 times per match. Looking at QPR's last three matches: on 21.04.2026, QPR lost to Swansea City 1-2, on 18.04.2026, they lost to Millwall 0-2, and on 11.04.2026, they drew 0-0 with Bristol City. For Derby County: on 21.04.2026, they lost to Norwich City 2-1, on 18.04.2026, they beat Oxford United 1-0, and on 11.04.2026, they lost to Southampton 2-1. In their last encounter on 25.10.2025, Derby County defeated QPR 1-0.

How Many Goals to Expect?

QPR has an average of 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded over their last five matches, with a total average of 2 goals per game. Derby County has higher numbers with 1.4 goals scored, 1.4 conceded, and an average of 2.8 goals per match. For over 2.5 total goals, QPR has 2 out of 5, while Derby County has 3 out of 5. In the first half, over 1.5 goals occurred once in 5 matches for QPR and twice for Derby County. In the second half, QPR played over 1.5 goals in 3 out of 5 matches, and Derby County in 4 out of 5. QPR most frequently scores between the 16th and 30th minutes (33%), while Derby County scores most often between the 61st and 75th minutes (27%). In terms of goals conceded, QPR is most vulnerable at the end of the match (76-90 minutes - 75%), while Derby County tends to concede between the 31st and 45th minutes (50%). Considering Derby County's strong over-profile in terms of totals and QPR's lower average goal figures, a bet on over 2.5 goals at 1.89 seems logical. Derby County consistently plays high-scoring matches, and QPR can keep up the pace, especially in the second half.

Corner Totals Analysis

QPR averages 4.8 corners per match, while Derby County averages 3.6. Over their last five matches, the total corners over 9.5 occurred once for both teams. Looking at the odds, over 9.5 corners is priced at 1.81, and under 9.5 is at 1.89. QPR is favored for the corner outcome with odds of 2.01. Together, the teams average around 8-9 corners per game, making a bet on the total corners around 9.5 reasonable to consider. QPR shows slightly more activity in delivering corners, which could impact the final numbers in this component.