Prediction for match Rayo Vallecano — Athletic Club

Match Analysis: Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club

In La Liga action on February 28, Rayo Vallecano will face Athletic Club. The 1X2 odds have Rayo Vallecano at 2.56, a draw at 3.19, and Athletic Club at 3.21. Looking at the probability distribution, Rayo Vallecano has a 38.46% chance, a draw is at 30.87%, and Athletic Club is at 30.67%. This indicates a slight edge for Rayo Vallecano, but the difference between the teams is minimal, and there is no clear favorite according to the bookmakers. For the totals, Over 2.5 is at 2.40, Under 2.5 is at 1.67, both teams to score - yes at 1.92, no at 1.80. Among the double chance options, X2 at 1.57 is the most appealing.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Rayo Vallecano has an average possession of 51.2%, commits 13.4 fouls, receives 3.4 yellow cards, and is caught offside 2.2 times per game. Athletic Club shows 48.4% possession, 15 fouls, 2 yellow cards, and 2.2 offsides. In their last three matches, Rayo Vallecano played as follows: February 21, 2026, Real Betis 1-1 Rayo Vallecano, February 15, 2026, Rayo Vallecano 3-0 Atletico Madrid, February 1, 2026, Real Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano. Athletic Club in the same period: February 20, 2026, Athletic Club 2-1 Elche, February 15, 2026, Real Oviedo 1-2 Athletic Club, February 11, 2026, Athletic Club 0-1 Real Sociedad. In their last head-to-head meeting on August 25, 2025, Athletic Club won 1-0 against Rayo Vallecano.

How Many Goals Will Be Scored in the Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club Match

Based on the last five games, both teams show a tendency for high-scoring football. Rayo Vallecano had over 2.5 goals in 4 out of 5 matches, and Athletic Club also had 4 out of 5. The average number of goals in Rayo Vallecano's matches is 3, while Athletic Club's is 3.2. Goals scored: Rayo Vallecano - 1.2, Athletic Club - 2. Goals conceded: Rayo Vallecano - 1.8, Athletic Club - 1.2. By halves, Rayo Vallecano had over 1.5 goals in the first half 2 times out of 5, and in the second half 3 out of 5. Athletic Club had over 1.5 goals in the first half 2 out of 5, and in the second half 4 out of 5. Rayo Vallecano most frequently scores in the 31-45 and 76-90 minute intervals (30% each), and concedes mainly at the end (76-90 minutes - 40%). Athletic Club scores most often in the 76-90 minute interval (38%), and concedes in the 61-75 minute range (44%). All this suggests a high likelihood of a high-scoring match, and a bet on over 2.25 goals at 1.98 seems justified.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Rayo Vallecano averages 4.8 corners per game, while Athletic Club averages 3.6. In a series of five matches, Rayo Vallecano had over 9.5 corners 3 times, while Athletic Club had none. Looking at the corner totals, the closest to the average sum (8.4) is the line of 8.5: over 8.5 corners is at 1.48, under 8.5 is at 2.40. In terms of corner outcomes, Rayo Vallecano is favored at 1.96. Considering Rayo Vallecano's average corner activity and Athletic Club's more modest numbers, a bet on over 8.5 corners seems logical, though the match could be close to this mark.