Prediction for match Rayo Vallecano — Real Madrid, 09.11.2025

Match Analysis: Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid

In the Spanish La Liga on November 9, 2025, Rayo Vallecano will face Real Madrid. According to the betting odds, Real Madrid's victory is priced at 1.50, a draw at 5.00, and a win for Rayo Vallecano at 5.25. The probabilities for the main outcomes are distributed as follows: 63.06% for a Real Madrid win, 18.92% for a draw, and 18.02% for a Rayo Vallecano win. Based on these figures, Real Madrid is considered the favorite, with the lowest odds among all outcomes favoring their victory.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Rayo Vallecano has an average possession of 55.2%, receives 2.4 yellow cards, commits 12.6 fouls, and records 1 offside per game. Real Madrid averages 59.8% possession, 1.8 yellow cards, 11.6 fouls, and 2.2 offsides. In their last three games, Rayo Vallecano played as follows: November 6 - Rayo Vallecano 3-2 Lech Poznań, November 1 - Villarreal 4-0 Rayo Vallecano, October 26 - Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Alavés. For Real Madrid, the recent results are: November 4 - Liverpool 1-0 Real Madrid, November 1 - Real Madrid 4-0 Valencia, October 26 - Real Madrid 2-1 Barcelona. In their last head-to-head on March 9, 2025, Real Madrid defeated Rayo Vallecano 2-1, surpassing the 2.5 goal total. Previous encounters also saw over 2.5 goals: December 14, 2024 - Rayo Vallecano 3-3 Real Madrid (Over 2.5), February 18, 2024 - Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Real Madrid (Under 2.5), November 5, 2023 - Real Madrid 0-0 Rayo Vallecano (Under 2.5), May 24, 2023 - Real Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano (Over 2.5).

How Many Goals to Expect?

In their last five matches, Rayo Vallecano has gone over 2.5 goals four times, while Real Madrid has done so twice and under three times. In the first half, Rayo Vallecano has 3 out of 5 over 1.5, Real Madrid 2 out of 5. In the second half, Rayo Vallecano has 3 out of 5 over 1.5, while Real Madrid has all 5 under 1.5. The average goals per game for Rayo Vallecano is 3.4, and for Real Madrid, it's 2.0. Rayo Vallecano scores an average of 1.8 goals and concedes 1.6, while Real Madrid scores 1.6 and concedes only 0.4. Rayo Vallecano scores most frequently between the 46th and 60th minutes (40%), and concedes most in the first 15 minutes (43%). Real Madrid's most productive minutes are from the 31st to the 45th (40%), while they concede most often between the 31st and 45th (50%) and 76th to 90th (50%). Considering the difference in scoring and conceding percentages, as well as Rayo Vallecano's consistent scoring, betting on a Real Madrid win seems logical, as they concede very few goals and have the highest winning percentage according to the odds.

Corner Totals Analysis

In their last five matches, Rayo Vallecano averages 5.6 corners, while Real Madrid averages 7.6. Rayo Vallecano has exceeded the 9.5 corner total 4 out of 5 times, and Real Madrid 2 out of 5. The odds for corner totals are: over 9.5 at 1.73, under 9.5 at 2.00. Real Madrid is favored in corner outcomes with odds of 1.57. Given Real Madrid's high average corner count and Rayo Vallecano's frequent overs, betting on over 9.5 corners appears justified. The average corner statistics over 5 matches confirm the trend towards a high number of corner kicks: Rayo Vallecano - 5.6, Real Madrid - 7.6.