Prediction for match Rayo Vallecano — Samsunspor

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

In the Conference League on 19.03.2026, Rayo Vallecano will face Samsunspor. Bookmakers offer odds of 1.68 for a Rayo Vallecano win, 3.97 for a draw, and 5.45 for a Samsunspor victory. The probability of a Rayo Vallecano win is 57.76%, a draw is 24.44%, and a Samsunspor win is 17.80%. This setup highlights Rayo Vallecano's advantage, although a draw is also possible. The match is expected to be competitive, with Rayo Vallecano being the favorite according to odds and probabilities.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Rayo Vallecano has maintained 50.8% ball possession, received an average of 2 yellow cards, committed 10.6 fouls, and had 1.6 offsides per game. Samsunspor, over the same period, has 59.6% possession, 2.4 yellow cards, 17 fouls, and 1.8 offsides. In their last three matches, Rayo Vallecano drew 1-1 with Levante (16.03.2026), beat Samsunspor 3-1 (12.03.2026), and drew 1-1 with Sevilla (08.03.2026). Samsunspor, in their last three games, defeated Kayserispor 2-1 (15.03.2026), lost to Rayo Vallecano 1-3 (12.03.2026), and lost to Fenerbahçe 2-3 (08.03.2026). In their head-to-head on 12.03.2026, Samsunspor lost to Rayo Vallecano 1-3.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In their last five matches, Rayo Vallecano has an average total of 2.6 goals, while Samsunspor has 3.2. Both teams score 1.8 goals per game, but Rayo Vallecano concedes fewer at 0.8 compared to Samsunspor's 1.4. Rayo Vallecano has gone over 2.5 goals twice and under three times in five matches. Samsunspor has gone over 2.5 goals four times and under once. In the first half, Rayo Vallecano has gone over 1.5 goals once in five matches, and the same in the second half. Samsunspor has gone over 1.5 goals twice in the first half and three times in the second. Rayo Vallecano most frequently scores between 31-45 minutes (29%), while Samsunspor scores most often between 76-90 minutes (50%). Rayo Vallecano concedes most often between 31-45 and 46-60 minutes (33% each), while Samsunspor concedes in the first 15 minutes (33%). Overall, both teams show decent scoring ability, with Samsunspor particularly prone to higher totals. Based on this data, a bet on over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.96 seems justified.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Rayo Vallecano averages 5.2 corners in their last five games, while Samsunspor averages 5.4. In a series of five matches, both teams have gone over 9.5 corners twice and under three times. The line closest to the average total (10.6) is 10.5. Odds for over 10.5 corners are 2.39, and for under 10.5 corners are 1.47. Rayo Vallecano is favored in corner outcomes with odds of 1.24. Considering the average figures and frequency, a bet on a total of around 10-11 corners is logical.