Prediction for match Real Madrid — Alaves

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

The La Liga clash between Real Madrid and Alaves is scheduled for 21.04.2026. According to the 1X2 odds, Real Madrid's win is priced at 1.31, a draw at 6.09, and Alaves' victory at 11.40. The probability percentages are distributed as follows: Real Madrid - 75.19%, draw - 16.17%, Alaves - 8.64%. This setup clearly indicates Real Madrid's advantage according to analysts, but both teams have been showing attacking football in recent matches, which could impact the final score. The betting lines also feature high odds for totals, reflecting both teams' offensive profiles in recent games.

Team Results and Statistics

Real Madrid's last three matches were: 15.04.2026 - Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid - 4-3, 10.04.2026 - Real Madrid vs Girona - 1-1, 07.04.2026 - Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich - 1-2. Alaves' recent three games ended as follows: 11.04.2026 - Real Sociedad vs Alaves - 3-3, 05.04.2026 - Alaves vs Osasuna - 2-2, 22.03.2026 - Celta vs Alaves - 3-4. Their last head-to-head encounter was on 14.12.2025: Alaves vs Real Madrid - 1-2. Over the last five games, Real Madrid averages 51% possession, 2 yellow cards, 9.4 fouls, and 2.2 offsides per game. Alaves averages 45% possession, 3.2 yellow cards, 15.4 fouls, and 1 offside. These figures suggest a more aggressive and foul-heavy style from Alaves, while Real Madrid shows greater discipline.

Teams' Scoring Streaks

Both Real Madrid and Alaves have shown a strong over-profile in their last five matches. Real Madrid had over 2.5 goals in 4 out of 5 games, and Alaves also in 4 out of 5. Real Madrid averages 4 goals per game, while Alaves averages 4.8. Real Madrid scores an average of 1.8 and concedes 2.2 goals, whereas Alaves scores 2.4 and concedes 2.4. In terms of halves, Real Madrid had over 1.5 goals in the second half in 5 out of 5 matches, and in the first half in 1 out of 5. Alaves had over 1.5 goals in the second half in 4 out of 5, and in the first half in 3 out of 5. For goal intervals: Real Madrid most frequently scores between 46-60 and 76-90 minutes (27% each), and concedes most between 31-45 minutes (33%). Alaves scores most frequently between 16-30, 31-45, and 76-90 minutes (25% each), and concedes most in the final 76-90 minutes (33%). This scoring profile for both teams suggests a high likelihood of a high-scoring match, particularly in the second half. Based on this, a bet on over 3.0 total goals at 1.71 seems justified: both teams regularly participate in high-scoring matches, supported by their attacking metrics in recent games.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Over their last five matches, Real Madrid averages 5.6 corners per game, while Alaves averages 4. In terms of frequency of over 9.5 corners: Real Madrid had over 9.5 in 4 out of 5 matches, Alaves in 2 out of 5. Looking at the odds, for a 9.5 corners total, both options are available: over 9.5 is priced at 1.60, under 9.5 at 2.14. Additionally, for corners, Real Madrid is favored with odds of 1.19. Considering the average stats for both teams and the frequency of over 9.5 totals, a bet on over 9.5 corners seems logical for this match. Real Madrid consistently delivers a high number of corners, and Alaves can add to the attacking activity, increasing the total number of set-pieces.