Prediction for match Real Madrid — Athletic Club

Match Analysis: Real Madrid vs Athletic Club

On May 23, in La Liga, Real Madrid will face Athletic Club. The odds for a Real Madrid win are 1.52, a draw is priced at 4.93, and an Athletic Club victory is at 6.55. According to probabilities, Real Madrid has a 64.92% chance of winning, a draw is at 20.02%, and Athletic Club has a 15.07% chance. This setup reflects Real Madrid's advantage based on bookmakers' lines and statistical expectations.

Team Results and Statistics

In the last five matches, Real Madrid has an average possession of 56%, receives 2 yellow cards per game, commits 10 fouls, and is caught offside 2.2 times per match. Athletic Club in the same period has 49.2% possession, receives 1.4 yellow cards, commits 12.4 fouls, and is caught offside 1.2 times per game. In their last three matches, Real Madrid played as follows: 17.05.2026 Sevilla - Real Madrid 0-1, 14.05.2026 Real Madrid - Real Oviedo 2-0, 10.05.2026 Barcelona - Real Madrid 2-0. Athletic Club's last three matches: 17.05.2026 Athletic Club - Celta 1-1, 13.05.2026 Espanyol - Athletic Club 2-0, 10.05.2026 Athletic Club - Valencia 0-1. The last head-to-head meeting was on 03.12.2025: Athletic Club - Real Madrid 0-3.

Goals Statistics

In the last five matches, Real Madrid has an average total goals per match of 1.8, scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.6 per game. Athletic Club has an average total of 3.2, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.8. For over 2.5 goals, Real Madrid has 0 out of 5, while Athletic Club has 2 out of 5. In the first half, over 1.5 goals occurred 1 out of 5 times for Real Madrid and 0 out of 5 for Athletic Club, in the second half - 1 out of 5 for Real Madrid and 3 out of 5 for Athletic Club. Real Madrid most often scores in the 76-90 minute interval (40%), while Athletic Club scores most frequently in the 46-60 interval (38%). Real Madrid concedes evenly across all four intervals: 0-15, 16-30, 46-60, 61-75. Athletic Club concedes most in the 76-90 interval (33%). Given Real Madrid's low scoring and Athletic Club's inconsistent profile, a bet on under 2.5 goals seems justified: Real Madrid hasn't had over 2.5 goals in their last five matches, with an average total of 1.8 goals per game.

Corners: Numbers and Betting Options

Real Madrid averages 5.6 corners per match, while Athletic Club averages 7.4. For over 9.5 corners, Real Madrid has 3 out of 5, and Athletic Club has 2 out of 5. With a combined corners total of 13 (5.6+7.4), the closest line is 13.0, with odds for over 13.0 at 2.27 and under 13.0 at 1.56. Real Madrid is the favorite on corners with odds of 1.53. Given both teams regularly earn many corners, a bet on over 13.0 corners is logical.