Prediction for match Real Madrid — Benfica

Match Analysis: Real Madrid vs Benfica

On February 25th, Real Madrid will face Benfica in the Champions League. Bookmakers see Real Madrid as the clear favorite, offering odds of 1.49 for their victory, 5.08 for a draw, and 6.70 for Benfica's success. The implied probabilities based on these odds are: Real Madrid win 65.98%, draw 19.35%, Benfica win 14.67%. For both teams to score, 'yes' is priced at 1.60, 'no' at 2.22. For over 2.5 total goals, the odds are 1.44, while under is 2.55. For individual team totals: Real Madrid over 2.5 goals is at 2.30, Benfica over 1.5 goals is at 3.20. For a total of 3.0 goals: over is at 1.70, under at 2.05. For the first half outcome: Real Madrid win is at 1.89, draw at 2.61, Benfica win at 5.70.

Teams' Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Real Madrid averaged 57.6% possession, received 2 yellow cards, committed 9.6 fouls, and were caught offside 2.4 times per game. Benfica, in the same period, showed 58.8% possession, 1.4 yellow cards, 6.8 fouls, and 1.6 offsides. In Real Madrid's last three games: February 21, 2026, Osasuna 2-1 Real Madrid, February 17, 2026, Benfica 0-1 Real Madrid, February 14, 2026, Real Madrid 4-1 Real Sociedad. For Benfica: February 21, 2026, Benfica 3-0 ABC, February 17, 2026, Benfica 0-1 Real Madrid, February 13, 2026, Santa Clara 1-2 Benfica. The last head-to-head was on February 17, 2026: Benfica 0-1 Real Madrid.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In the last 5 matches, both teams had 3 games over 2.5 goals and 2 under. Real Madrid's average total goals per game is 2.8, while Benfica's is 2.0. Real Madrid scores an average of 2 goals and concedes 0.8, while Benfica scores 1.4 and concedes 0.6. By halves: Real Madrid had 1 game over 1.5 goals in the first half and 3 in the second, while Benfica had 3 in the first half and none in the second. Goal intervals: Real Madrid most frequently scores between 0-15, 31-45, and 76-90 minutes (25% each), Benfica between 16-30 minutes (33%). Real Madrid concedes most between 46-60 and 61-75 minutes (33% each), while Benfica concedes 50% of their goals between 16-30 minutes. Both teams regularly score, and statistically, both teams to score seems a logical choice: both teams have an average goal score above 1, and over 2.5 goals occurred 3 out of 5 times. Considering neither Real Madrid nor Benfica have a strong under-profile, betting on both teams to score: yes at 1.60 seems justified.

Betting on Corners

Real Madrid averages 6.8 corners per match, while Benfica averages 8.4. In the last 5 games, Real Madrid had 4 matches over 9.5 total corners, and Benfica had 3. For total corners: over 9.5 is priced at 1.61, under at 2.12. In corner outcomes, Real Madrid is favored with odds of 1.36. Given these stats, betting on total corners over 9.5 seems logical as both teams consistently win many corners. It may also be worth considering Benfica's individual corner total, given their average of 8.4 per game.