Prediction for match Real Madrid — Rayo Vallecano, 01.02.2026

Odds and Probabilities for Match Outcome

The La Liga match between Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano will take place on February 1, 2026. The odds for the outcomes are as follows: a win for Real Madrid is at 1.29, a draw is priced at 6.35, and a victory for Rayo Vallecano is at 11.90. The probabilities for 1X2 are distributed as: Real Madrid - 76.25%, draw - 15.49%, Rayo Vallecano - 8.27%. This distribution reflects Real Madrid's dominance this season and the high likelihood of their victory. Besides the outcome, bookmakers offer a wide range of totals, with over 2.5 goals at 1.43, and both teams to score: yes - 1.88, no - 1.84. This highlights expectations for a high-scoring game, but with a clear bias towards Real Madrid.

Team Results and Statistics

Real Madrid has shown confident play in their last five matches: they recently played Benfica to a 4-2 win, then defeated Villarreal 2-0, and earlier crushed Monaco 6-1. They also secured victories over Levante 2-0 and had a loss to Albacete 2-3. Rayo Vallecano, in their five-match series, lost to Osasuna 1-3, Celta 0-3, and Alaves 0-2, but beat Mallorca 2-1 and Granada 3-1. In secondary statistics, Real Madrid's average possession over 5 games is 64.4%, yellow cards - 2.6, fouls - 11.6, offsides - 0.4. Rayo Vallecano's possession is 56.2%, yellow cards - 2, fouls - 12.4, offsides - 2. In the last head-to-head on November 9, 2025, the teams played to a 0-0 draw.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In their last five matches, Real Madrid scores an average of 2.8 goals per game, conceding 1.6, with a total goal count in their matches reaching 4.4. Rayo Vallecano's average figures are more modest: 1.2 scored and 2 conceded, total goals - 3.2. For over 2.5 goals, Real Madrid has 3 out of 5, Rayo Vallecano has 4 out of 5. In the first half, over 1.5 goals was recorded for Real Madrid 3 times, and for Rayo Vallecano once. In the second half, Real Madrid is consistently productive: over 1.5 goals in all 5 matches, Rayo Vallecano in 4 out of 5. In terms of goal intervals, Real Madrid most frequently scores between 46-60 and 76-90 minutes (27% each), while Rayo Vallecano scores in the 46-60 interval (33%). Conceded goals for Real Madrid also fall in the 46-60 and 76-90 minutes (29% each), for Rayo Vallecano - 43% in the last 15 minutes. This dynamic confirms that the game could be high-scoring, especially in the second half. Against this backdrop, a bet on over 3.5 goals at 2.25 seems justified, considering the high average goal figures and frequent over totals for both teams.

Analysis of Corner Totals

In their last five matches, Real Madrid averages 8 corners, Rayo Vallecano - 7.2. For over 9.5 corners, both teams have 4 out of 5. Looking at the corner total, over 9.5 is priced at 1.58, under 9.5 at 2.17. The line also includes an outcome for corners: a win for Real Madrid is at 1.18. The dynamics of corners indicate high attacking activity from both teams, making a bet on over 9.5 logical. Meanwhile, Real Madrid consistently outperforms their opponent in the number of corners, which is also reflected in the odds.