Prediction for match Rennes — Metz

Match Analysis: Rennes vs Metz

On March 22nd, Rennes will face Metz in Ligue 1, and according to the bookmakers, Rennes is the clear favorite. The odds for a Rennes victory are 1.38, a draw stands at 5.48, and a win for Metz is at 9.10. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Rennes win - 71.25%, draw - 17.94%, Metz win - 10.81%. These numbers confirm Rennes as the strong favorite, with Metz having minimal chances of success. Options for totals and both teams to score are also available, but Rennes stands out as the team analysts and bookmakers are backing.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Rennes recorded the following results: March 15, 2026 - Rennes 1-2 Lille, March 8, 2026 - Nice 0-4 Rennes, February 28, 2026 - Rennes 1-0 Toulouse. Metz's recent matches: March 15, 2026 - Metz 3-4 Toulouse, March 8, 2026 - Lens 3-0 Metz, March 1, 2026 - Metz 0-1 Brest. In their head-to-head on November 28, 2025, Metz lost to Rennes 0-1. Over a five-match span, Rennes averages 55% possession, 1.6 yellow cards, 13 fouls, and 2.4 offsides per game. Metz holds 51.8% possession, receives 1.8 yellow cards, commits 13.8 fouls, and 0.8 offsides. These figures show that Rennes controls the game better, while Metz commits more fouls and is less often caught offside.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In the last five matches, both teams have shown an over-profile: Rennes had 4 out of 5 games over 2.5 total goals, and Metz also 4 out of 5. The average number of goals in Rennes' matches is 3, while for Metz it's 3.6. Rennes scores an average of 2.4 goals per game and concedes 0.6, while Metz scores 0.8 and concedes 2.8. By halves, Rennes had 2 out of 5 games with more than 1.5 goals in the first half and 3 out of 5 in the second, Metz similarly had 2 out of 5 in the first half and 3 out of 5 in the second. Rennes scores evenly across five different intervals, 20% in each, while Metz most frequently scored between the 31-45 and 76-90 minutes (30% each). Metz is most vulnerable to conceding goals early (0-15 minutes - 38%) and late (76-90 minutes - 38%). All this indicates a high probability of a high-scoring match, with Rennes likely to score at least twice, and the total goals having a good chance to exceed 2.5. Considering Metz's low scoring and Rennes' solid defense, betting on over 2.5 goals seems logical - the odds for this are 1.57.

Corner Totals Analysis

Over the last five matches, Rennes averages 4.4 corners per game, while Metz averages 5. Combined, this makes 9.4, close to the 9.5 total line. In the last five matches, Rennes had over 9.5 corners once, and Metz twice. The odds on corners: over 9.5 is at 1.75, under 9.5 at 1.97. In corner betting, Rennes is favored with odds of 1.19. Given the average activity of both teams and proximity to the 9.5 line, betting on over 9.5 corners seems justified, but the frequency of this total being reached is not very high. Considering this, it might be wiser to look at cautious options, such as individual corner totals or a slightly lower total to reduce risk.