Prediction for match Rio Ave — Moreirense

Match Analysis: Rio Ave vs Moreirense

In the Primeira Liga on 16.02.2026, Rio Ave will face Moreirense. Odds for Moreirense's victory are 2.55, for Rio Ave's win - 3.08, and a draw is at 3.18. Based on probabilities: Rio Ave - 31.48%, draw - 30.49%, Moreirense - 38.03%. Moreirense is highlighted as the favorite, although the gap isn't too large. Interestingly, the odds for a draw and a Rio Ave win are quite close, indicating a fairly even matchup in the eyes of analysts.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Rio Ave had an average possession of 45.8%, with 0.8 yellow cards, 9.4 fouls, and 2.6 offsides per game. Moreirense, over the same period, showed 53% possession, 2.4 yellow cards, 11.2 fouls, and 1.6 offsides. In their last three games, Rio Ave lost to Braga 0-3 (08.02.2026), lost to Arouca 0-3 (31.01.2026), and Nacional 0-4 (25.01.2026). Moreirense in their last three matches lost to Gil Vicente 1-2 (07.02.2026), lost to Vitória Guimarães 0-1 (30.01.2026), and defeated Santa Clara 1-0 (24.01.2026). The last head-to-head meeting took place on 13.09.2025, with Moreirense winning 3-1.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Rio Ave, in a five-match series, has an average of 3.2 goals per game, scoring only 0.6 and conceding 2.6. Moreirense, in their last five matches, has 1.8 goals per game, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1. For over 2.5 total goals, Rio Ave hit over in 4 out of 5, while Moreirense did so in 2 out of 5. In the first half, Rio Ave had over 1.5 goals only once out of 5, and Moreirense never. In the second half, Rio Ave had over 1.5 goals 4 out of 5, and Moreirense 2 out of 5. In terms of goal timing, Rio Ave most frequently scores between 61-75 and 76-90 minutes (30% each), while Moreirense scores between 61-75 minutes (67%). Rio Ave concedes most often between 16-30 minutes (33%), and Moreirense in three intervals: 31-45, 61-75, and 76-90 (33% each). Both teams have low attacking efficiency: Rio Ave scores 0.6, Moreirense - 0.8. Considering Rio Ave's over 2.5 total hits 4 times out of 5, and Moreirense's only 2, a bet on over 2.0 goals at 1.60 seems justified: Rio Ave's high conceding rate and Moreirense's ability to exploit a weak defense.

Corner Totals Analysis

In the last 5 matches, Rio Ave averaged 4.6 corners, Moreirense - 3.4. Rio Ave had over 9.5 total corners in 5 out of 5 matches, Moreirense in 2 out of 5. For a total of 8.5 corners, the odds are: over 8.5 at 1.61, under 8.5 at 2.09. In the corner outcome market, Moreirense is favored at 2.10. Given Rio Ave's consistent high corner totals, considering over 8.5 is logical. Although Moreirense can contest the number of deliveries, recent match statistics indicate Rio Ave's advantage in this area.