Prediction for match Santos — Sao Paulo, 05.02.2026

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

In Brazil's Serie A, Santos will face Sao Paulo on February 4, 2026. Bookmakers have set the odds for a Santos victory at 2.12, a draw at 3.19, and a Sao Paulo win at 3.89. In terms of probabilities: Santos - 45.26%, draw - 30.08%, Sao Paulo - 24.66%. Therefore, Santos is slightly favored according to the odds and probabilities, but the gap with a draw is not overwhelming. These numbers indicate a moderate advantage for Santos in the upcoming match, though Sao Paulo is capable of providing serious competition. The expectations suggest a competitive encounter without a clear tilt towards either side.

Team Recent Match Analysis

In their last five matches, Santos has averaged 47.4% possession, 2.6 yellow cards, 7.8 fouls, and 1.2 offsides per game. During the same period, Sao Paulo has averaged 55.6% possession, 1.6 yellow cards, 9.6 fouls, and 1.2 offsides. Santos' last three matches: 31.01.2026 - Sao Paulo vs. Santos - 2-0, 28.01.2026 - Chapecoense vs. Santos - 4-2, 25.01.2026 - Santos vs. RB Bragantino - 0-0. Sao Paulo's last three matches: 31.01.2026 - Sao Paulo vs. Santos - 2-0, 29.01.2026 - Sao Paulo vs. Flamengo - 2-1, 24.01.2026 - Palmeiras vs. Sao Paulo - 3-1. In their last head-to-head on January 31, Sao Paulo defeated Santos 2-0.

Goalscoring Patterns

In Santos' last five matches, over 2.5 goals occurred once, and under 2.5 goals happened four times. For Sao Paulo, over 2.5 goals occurred three times, and under 2.5 happened twice. In the first halves, both teams had only one occurrence of over 1.5 goals in five matches. In the second halves, both Santos and Sao Paulo exceeded 1.5 goals three times. The average goals in Santos' matches is 2.4, while Sao Paulo's is 3.2. Santos scores an average of 0.8 and concedes 1.6, whereas Sao Paulo scores 1.6 and concedes 1.6. As for goal intervals: Santos most frequently scores between the 76th and 90th minutes (44%), while Sao Paulo scores in two intervals: 46-60 and 76-90 minutes (30% each). Santos concedes most often in four consecutive intervals (16-75 minutes) at 25%, and Sao Paulo in the 46-60 and 76-90 minutes intervals (33% each). This profile suggests that Sao Paulo is likely to score at least once, while Santos regularly concedes, especially in the second half. Meanwhile, Sao Paulo's attacking line appears more convincing, and the average goal total for both teams doesn't fall into low-scoring categories. Based on these figures, a bet on over 2.25 goals at 1.82 seems justified - Sao Paulo has consistent scoring, and Santos often concedes, increasing the likelihood of this line being met.

Corners: Stats and Potential Bets

Over the last five matches, Santos averages 4.6 corners, while Sao Paulo averages 3.8. For the frequency of over 9.5 corners: both teams have 2 occurrences out of 5. The combined average corners amount to 8.4. The line offers a total corners of 9.5: over 9.5 at 2.39, under 9.5 at 1.51. Given these stats, a cautious bet on under 9.5 corners is logical, considering neither team shows heightened activity in corner kicks. On average, their figures don't reach 9.5, and the frequency of over doesn't exceed 2 out of 5. Sao Paulo commits fouls slightly more often (9.6), but doesn't stand out in corners. Overall, the match doesn't promise a high number of corner standards.