Prediction for match Sao Paulo — Gremio, 12.02.2026

Odds and Probabilities for Match Outcome

In Brazil's Serie A on February 12, Sao Paulo will face Gremio. The odds for a Sao Paulo win are 2.18, a draw is at 3.02, and a Gremio victory is priced at 3.95. In terms of probabilities: Sao Paulo - 43.98%, draw - 31.75%, Gremio - 24.27%. Sao Paulo is considered the favorite, but the potential for a draw also has significant backing. Interestingly, the odds for over 2.5 goals are 2.15, while under 2.5 is at 1.73, indicating a slight lean towards moderate scoring. Both teams to score: yes - 1.83, no - 1.87, which also suggests an expectation of goals from both sides, but without a strong bias towards the over.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Sao Paulo performed as follows: February 7 - Sao Paulo vs Primavera SP - 2-1, February 4 - Santos vs Sao Paulo - 1-1, January 31 - Sao Paulo vs Santos - 2-0. Gremio's last three matches: February 5 - Gremio vs Botafogo - 5-3, January 28 - Fluminense vs Gremio - 2-1, December 7 - Sport Recife vs Gremio - 0-4. In their last head-to-head on October 16, 2025, Gremio defeated Sao Paulo 2-0. Additional metrics show Sao Paulo averages 60.2% possession, commits 10.4 fouls, receives 0.6 yellow cards, and records 0.6 offsides per game over their last five matches. Gremio averages 49.8% possession, 13 fouls, 2.2 yellow cards, and 1.4 offsides in the same period. Sao Paulo appears more disciplined and controls the ball more frequently, while Gremio plays more aggressively and commits more fouls.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In their last five matches, Sao Paulo's average total goals is 2.8, while Gremio's is 4.6. Sao Paulo scores 1.6 and concedes 1.2 goals per game, Gremio scores 2.8 and concedes 1.8. For over 2.5 goals: Sao Paulo has 3 out of 5, Gremio - 5 out of 5. In the first half, Sao Paulo had only 1 out of 5 matches with two or more goals, Gremio - 3 out of 5. In the second half, Sao Paulo recorded over 1.5 goals in 3 out of 5, Gremio in 4 out of 5. By time intervals, Sao Paulo most frequently scores between 46-75 minutes (30% in each of the two periods), while Gremio scores most often between 46-60 minutes (55%). Sao Paulo concedes most frequently between 46-60 minutes (50%), and Gremio between 16-30 minutes (33%). This profile indicates a high likelihood of a productive second half and a general tendency for both teams to go over. Both teams have good scoring records, and Gremio has gone over 2.5 goals in 5 out of 5. Combined with the 2.15 odds for over 2.5 goals, betting on the over seems justified.

Analysis of Corner Totals

In their last five games, Sao Paulo averages 4 corners, Gremio 6. For over 9.5 corners: Sao Paulo has 2 out of 5, Gremio 1 out of 5. The nearest average total is 9.5: over 9.5 corners is priced at 1.68, under 9.5 at 2.03. Sao Paulo is the favorite in corner outcomes with odds of 1.57. Overall, both teams do not demonstrate an excessively high frequency of exceeding the 9.5 total, but the average corner statistics make considering the over 9.5 as a logical choice for corner bets.