Prediction for match Braga — Nacional, 23.11.2025

Odds and Probabilities for the Match Outcome

The cup clash between Braga and Nacional is set for November 23rd. Braga is favored by the odds: their victory is priced at 1.73, reflecting a 53.87% chance. A draw is at 3.75 with a 24.85% probability, while a win for Nacional is at 4.38 with a 21.28% chance. The odds and probabilities clearly favor the home team, but cup matches often bring surprises, making the analysis of other statistical parameters interesting. It's worth noting that bets on the total goals are also popular: over 2.5 goals is at 1.66, while under 2.5 is at 2.16.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Braga has shown a high possession rate of 59%, with an average of 1.6 yellow cards and 12.2 fouls per game, along with 1.8 offsides. Nacional, over the same period, averages 44.2% possession, 2.8 yellow cards, 12.8 fouls, and 1.8 offsides. In their last three games, Braga defeated Moreirense 2-1 (09.11.2025), lost to Genk 3-4 (06.11.2025), and were beaten by Porto 1-2 (02.11.2025). Nacional drew 1-1 with Estrela (09.11.2025), lost 0-1 to Famalicão (01.11.2025), and drew 1-1 with Estoril (26.10.2025). Their last head-to-head meeting was on September 28, 2025, with Nacional winning 1-0. The last five meetings between the teams have seen varying results: 0-1, 1-0, 0-3, 2-2, 0-5, with over 2.5 goals occurring in three of those games.

Goal Totals Statistics

Braga has a clear trend towards high-scoring games, with 4 out of 5 matches going over 2.5 goals, averaging 3.8 goals per match. Nacional, in the same period, had only 1 out of 5 matches with over 2.5 goals, averaging 2.2 goals. By halves, Braga had 2 out of 5 matches with over 1.5 goals in the first half and 4 out of 5 in the second, while Nacional had low-scoring halves, with only 1 out of 5 going over 1.5 goals. Braga most frequently scores in the 0-15 and 61-75 minute intervals (23% each), while conceding mainly in the 46-60 minute span (50%). Nacional most often scores between 46-60 minutes (40%) and concedes in the 31-45 minute window (50%). Overall, Braga's high scoring rate and attacking dominance in key metrics, along with a tendency for goal-rich finishes, make the over 2.5 goals bet a logical choice. This is further supported by Braga's average of 2.4 goals scored compared to Nacional's 1.2. Additionally, Braga has seen over 1.5 goals in the second half in 4 out of 5 games.

Corner Totals Analysis

In terms of corners, Braga averages 4.6 over the last 5 matches, while Nacional averages 3.8. The frequency of over 9.5 corners is 1 out of 5 for Braga and 2 out of 5 for Nacional. The line for the match offers over 9.5 corners at 2.10 and under 9.5 at 1.69. There is no clear favorite in corner outcomes, but Braga's odds for winning on corners are lower than their opponent's. Considering the moderate figures from both teams and the relatively low occurrence of high corner totals, a bet on under 9.5 corners seems justified. However, if Braga attacks aggressively, there is a chance of slightly exceeding the average.