Prediction for match Freiburg — Mainz 05, 30.11.2025

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

On November 30th, in the Bundesliga, Freiburg will face Mainz 05. The odds for Freiburg to win are 2.01, which corresponds to a 48.98% probability. A draw is priced at 3.60 (27.35%), while a victory for Mainz 05 is at 4.16 (23.67%). Freiburg is the favorite, with a noticeable gap in probability compared to Mainz 05. This reflects the recent form, where Freiburg has been consistently picking up points and showing higher scoring efficiency than their opponents. However, a draw also seems possible considering the frequent stalemates in their head-to-head encounters.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Freiburg has averaged 48.2% possession, 1.4 yellow cards, 10.6 fouls, and 1.8 offsides per game. Mainz 05 lags in possession (47.4%) but is much more aggressive: 2.8 yellows, 16.6 fouls, and 2.2 offsides. Freiburg's last three games: 27.11 Viktoria Plzeň - Freiburg 0-0, 22.11 Bayern - Freiburg 6-2, 09.11 Freiburg - St. Pauli 2-1. Mainz 05: 27.11 Universitatea Craiova - Mainz 05 1-0, 21.11 Mainz 05 - Hoffenheim 1-1, 09.11 Eintracht Frankfurt - Mainz 05 1-0. Their last head-to-head on 15.03 ended 2-2, with over 2.5 goals, while before that, on 03.11 it ended 0-0 (under 2.5 goals), and on 21.04 it was 1-1 (under 2.5 goals).

How Many Goals to Expect?

Freiburg averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over five matches, totaling 3 goals per game. Mainz 05 is more modest: 0.8 scored and 1 conceded, totaling 1.8 goals on average. For over 2.5 goals: Freiburg has 3 out of 5, Mainz 05 only 1 out of 5. In the first half, Freiburg has 2 out of 5 for over 1.5 goals, Mainz 05 has none. In the second half: Freiburg 2 out of 5, Mainz 05 - 1 out of 5. Freiburg most often scores between 46-60 minutes (33%), Mainz 05 in the last 15 minutes (76-90 minutes, 50%). For conceded goals: Freiburg has two peaks of 33% between 16-30 and 31-45 minutes, Mainz 05 has three peaks of 33% in the intervals 0-15, 16-30, and 76-90 minutes. Neither team is particularly prolific, but Freiburg consistently plays over 2.5 goals, while Mainz 05 often sticks to low-scoring games. This balance suggests a match with a moderate number of goals, where a bet on under 2.5 goals at 1.90 seems justified.

Corners in the Match

Freiburg averages 5.2 corners per game, Mainz 05 - 4.2. In the last 5 matches, Freiburg has 3 out of 5 for over 9.5 corners, Mainz 05 only 1 out of 5. Available odds for total corners: closest to the average sum (9.4) is the total of 9.5. Odds for over 9.5 corners are 2.17, under 9.5 - 1.64. Freiburg is the favorite for corners with odds of 1.90. It's expected that Freiburg will attack more from the wings, leading to more corner kicks, and the overall total corners may exceed 9.5.