Prediction for match Sevilla — Atletico Madrid

Odds and Probability of Match Outcomes

In La Liga on April 11, Sevilla will face Atletico Madrid. The odds for Atletico Madrid to win are 2.47, a draw is at 3.25, and a win for Sevilla is 3.30. The probability of Atletico Madrid winning is 39.86%, a draw is 30.30%, and a Sevilla win is 29.84%. Based on the odds and probabilities, Atletico Madrid is highlighted as the favorite, but the difference between the teams isn't significant, suggesting a potential battle for points from both sides. The goal total options are also intriguing: over 2.5 goals is at 2.18, under 2.5 goals is at 1.79. Both teams to score: yes is at 1.80, no is at 1.92. The under 2.5 goals option stands out as one of the most stable bets with odds of 1.79.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Sevilla lost to Real Oviedo 0-1, Valencia 0-2, and Barcelona 2-5. Atletico Madrid in their last three encounters beat Barcelona 2-0, lost to Barcelona 1-2, and were defeated by Real Madrid 2-3. In a five-match series, Sevilla's average ball possession is 45%, while Atletico Madrid's is 47.6%. Sevilla averages 2 yellow cards, while Atletico Madrid averages 3.6. Fouls are recorded at 13.4 for Sevilla and 12.6 for Atletico Madrid, with offsides at 2.2 against 2 respectively. In their last head-to-head on November 1, 2025, Atletico Madrid thrashed Sevilla 3-0. These stats indicate that both teams are not averse to tough battles and can capitalize on set pieces, but Sevilla has recently been less effective in attack.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In the last five matches, Sevilla has averaged 1 goal per game, conceding 2.2, while Atletico Madrid has scored 1.6 times and conceded 1.6. Over 2.5 goals occurred 2 out of 5 times for Sevilla and 3 out of 5 for Atletico Madrid. In the first half, Sevilla had over 1.5 goals three times, while Atletico Madrid only once. In the second half, both teams had over 1.5 goals twice out of 5. The most frequent goal interval for Sevilla is the 31-45 minute mark (33%), and for Atletico Madrid, it's the 46-60 minute mark (38%). Sevilla concedes most often in the 31-45 minute interval (43%), while Atletico Madrid struggles in two intervals: 31-45 and 61-75 minutes (38% each). On average, 3.2 goals are scored per match, but Sevilla shows low attacking efficiency and high defensive vulnerability, whereas Atletico Madrid's stats are more balanced. Considering the frequency of under 2.5 goals and the average scoring rate, betting on under 2.5 goals seems the most logical for this match.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

In their last five games, Sevilla averages 4.6 corners, while Atletico Madrid averages 4. The frequency of over 9.5 corners for Sevilla is just 1 out of 5, while Atletico Madrid has 3 out of 5. Adding the averages gives us 8.6, close to the 8.5-9.5 line. For a total of 9.5 corners, the odds are: over 9.5 at 1.99, under 9.5 at 1.73. Atletico Madrid is favored in corner outcomes with odds of 2.00. Based on statistics, betting on under 9.5 corners seems slightly more reliable, considering Sevilla's low frequency of this total. However, Atletico Madrid has the potential for flank activity, which could increase the number of set pieces, but the overall match profile doesn't suggest a high number of corners.