Prediction for match Spezia — Empoli

Match Analysis: Spezia vs Empoli

In Serie B action on March 17, Spezia will face Empoli. According to the 1X2 odds, Spezia's victory is priced at 2.47, a draw at 2.76, and Empoli's success at 3.34. Spezia's win probability stands at 37.96%, a draw at 33.97%, and Empoli at 28.07%. The odds and percentages suggest a slight edge for Spezia, but the gap between the teams isn't too wide. The over 2.5 goals market is priced at 2.29, hinting at a high likelihood of an entertaining match. The "Both Teams to Score: Yes" option is at 1.88, while "No" is at 1.82, further indicating expectations of goals from both sides.

Team Performance and Statistics

In their last three matches, Spezia's results were: March 13, 2026 - Modena vs Spezia - 3-0, March 7, 2026 - Spezia vs Monza - 4-2, March 3, 2026 - Padova vs Spezia - 2-2. Empoli's recent results are: March 14, 2026 - Empoli vs Mantova - 2-2, March 8, 2026 - Catanzaro vs Empoli - 3-2, March 4, 2026 - Bari vs Empoli - 2-1. In their head-to-head on September 14, 2025, Empoli and Spezia drew 1-1. Over the last five matches, Spezia has had 54.4% possession, averaging 2.4 yellow cards, 14 fouls, and 1.2 offsides per game. Empoli has had 48.2% possession, with 2 yellow cards, 15.4 fouls, and 2 offsides per game. These stats show that both teams are evenly matched in terms of intensity and discipline, with the ability to control the ball and engage in a competitive game.

Goals Expectation

In their last five matches, Spezia has seen over 2.5 goals in 4 out of 5 games, and Empoli has the same record. Regarding first-half goals, Spezia had over 1.5 goals in 3 out of 5, and Empoli in 4 out of 5. In the second half, Spezia had over 1.5 goals in 4 out of 5, and Empoli in 3 out of 5. The average number of goals in Spezia's matches is 3.8, while Empoli's is 3.6. Spezia scores an average of 1.8 goals and concedes 2, while Empoli scores 1.6 and concedes 2. In terms of goal timing, Spezia frequently scores between 46-60 minutes (36%), and Empoli between 61-75 minutes (40%). Both teams most commonly concede between 16-30 minutes (38%). These stats indicate high-scoring potential for both teams, frequent over 2.5 goal outcomes, and a significant number of second-half goals. Considering the consistent overs and average totals nearing 4 per game, a bet on over 2.5 goals seems logical.

Corner Totals Analysis

Over their last five matches, Spezia averages 3.6 corners, and Empoli 6.8, totaling 10.4 per game. For the over 9.5 corners market, Spezia exceeded this in only 1 out of 5 games, while Empoli did so in 4 out of 5. The line closest to the average total is set at 9.5: over 9.5 corners is at 1.80, and under 9.5 at 1.88. Spezia is favored for the corner outcome with odds of 1.76. Given Empoli's high corner activity and the overall total, considering the over 9.5 corners as an interesting betting option makes sense. It's also worth noting Empoli's individual corner stats consistently exceed 6 per match.