Prediction for match Spezia — Monza

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

On March 7, in Serie B, Spezia will face Monza. According to the 1X2 odds, a Monza win is priced at 2.03, a draw at 3.25, and a Spezia victory at 3.74. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Monza's win is at 46.14%, a draw at 28.82%, and Spezia's win at 25.04%. Monza stands out as the favorite based on these figures, which is further confirmed by the percentage difference between the teams.

Team Performance and Statistics

In their last five matches, Spezia averages 52.2% ball possession, records 2.4 yellow cards, commits 13 fouls, and 0.2 offsides per match. Monza's stats are as follows: 54.4% possession, 1.4 yellow cards, 14.4 fouls, and 1.4 offsides. In their last three matches, Spezia played as follows: March 3, Padova vs Spezia 2-2, February 28, Spezia vs Reggiana 0-1, and February 21, Cesena vs Spezia 2-3. Monza in their last three matches secured a win on March 3 against Cesena 3-1, won on February 27 against Virtus Entella 2-0, and defeated Carrarese 1-0 on February 21. In their head-to-head match on November 2, 2025, Monza beat Spezia 1-0.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In the last 5 matches, Spezia averages 2.4 goals, while Monza averages 2. Monza scores an average of 1.6 and concedes 0.4, while Spezia scores 1 and concedes 1.4. In their five-game series, the total over 2.5 goals occurred 2 times for both teams, and under 3 times. By halves, Spezia had over 1.5 goals in the first half 2 out of 5 times, and also 2 out of 5 in the second half. Monza in the first half had only 1 out of 5 over 1.5, but in the second half, 3 out of 5. Monza scores more frequently in the 61-75 and 76-90 minute intervals, both at 40%. Spezia's goals are most often distributed across four intervals: 0-15, 31-45, 46-60, and 76-90 minutes, each at 25%. For goals conceded, Spezia stands out in the 16-30, 31-45, and 61-75 minute intervals, each at 25%. Monza concedes evenly across each of the five 15-minute intervals at 20%. Overall, the stats suggest moderate scoring, but with a slight edge to Monza in attacking metrics. The most logical choice seems to be a total over 2.0 at 1.60, considering both teams are capable of scoring, and Monza has shown a stable attack in recent games.

Analysis of Corner Totals

In the last 5 matches, Spezia averages 4.8 corners, while Monza averages 3.6. In the five-game series, the total corners over 9.5 occurred 3 times for Spezia and 2 times for Monza. The total closest to the average is 9.5, with both outcomes available: over 9.5 at 1.84 and under 9.5 also at 1.84. Monza is the favorite on corners with odds of 1.64. Considering the average activity of both teams on corner kicks, a bet on total corners over 9.5 seems justified, especially given that Spezia's matches exceeded this total in three out of five games.