Prediction for match Sport Recife — Athletic

Match Analysis: Sport Recife vs Athletic

In the Copa do Brasil on March 18, Sport Recife faces Athletic. According to the 1X2 odds, bookmakers favor Sport Recife: their victory is priced at 1.60, a draw at 3.85, and an Athletic win at 5.29. In terms of probability, Sport Recife has a 58.21% chance of winning, a draw is at 24.19%, and Athletic has a 17.60% chance. This clearly indicates a significant advantage for Sport Recife, but a draw is also a possibility, according to the odds. The total goals market is also intriguing: over 2.5 goals is at 1.88, under is at 1.87. Both teams to score: yes is at 1.86, no is at 1.84. Options for individual totals and double chance are also available, but the main interest is in the over 2.5 goals.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Sport Recife averaged 46% possession, received 2.6 yellow cards, committed 11.6 fouls, and were caught offside 1.4 times per game. Athletic appears slightly more active with 52.2% possession, 4.2 yellow cards, 14.8 fouls, and 1.8 offsides per game. In their last three matches, Sport Recife lost to Gremio 0-4 (07.12.2025), Bahia 0-2 (03.12.2025), and Santos 0-3 (29.11.2025). Athletic, in their last three encounters, defeated Paysandu 2-1 (23.11.2025), drew with Coritiba 0-0 (15.11.2025), and won against Ferroviaria 2-1 (07.11.2025). There have been no recent head-to-head meetings between these teams.

How Many Goals Will Be in the Sport Recife vs Athletic Match

In Sport Recife's last five matches, the total was over 2.5 goals in four games, and under in one. For Athletic, three out of five games ended with over 2.5 goals. Sport Recife's matches average 3.6 goals, with the team scoring just 0.6 and conceding 3 per game. Athletic's average total is 2.2, scoring 1 and conceding 1.2. In terms of halves, all of Sport Recife's last five matches had over 1.5 goals in the first half, but only once in the second half. Athletic had over 1.5 goals in the first half only once in five matches, but three times in the second half. Sport Recife most frequently scores between the 16th-30th and 31st-45th minutes (30% each), while Athletic scores mainly in the closing stages, from the 76th to 90th minute (50%). Sport Recife most often concedes in the 0-15 minute interval (33%), while Athletic's concessions are evenly spread across all five-minute intervals in the second half (20% each). Given both teams' profiles, frequent over 2.5 totals, and Sport Recife's high average match goals, a bet on over 2.5 goals at 1.88 is the main consideration. Both teams have their peaks of activity in different halves, which also supports the likelihood of three or more goals.

Analysis of Corner Totals

For corners, Sport Recife averages 3.8 per game, while Athletic averages 5.4. In their last five matches, Sport Recife had over 9.5 corners three times, while Athletic had it twice. Looking at the odds, for a total of 9.5 corners, both options are available: over 9.5 is at 1.73, under is at 1.98. Sport Recife is favored for corners with odds of 1.23. Considering the average total corners (9.2 combined), a bet on over 9.5 corners seems logical, but given Sport Recife's lower average and Athletic's higher, one can expect a balance around 9-10 corners. It should also be noted that Athletic has higher flank activity, which could lead to an increase in corners in the second half. Overall, a bet on over 9.5 corners is justified, but the main focus in this match is still on goals.