Prediction for match Sporting Gijon — Malaga, 04.01.2026

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

In the Segunda Division on January 4, Sporting Gijón will face Málaga. Bookmakers have set the odds for a Sporting Gijón win at 1.98, a draw at 3.34, and a Málaga victory at 4.22. Based on these odds, Sporting Gijón has a 48.50% chance of winning, a draw has a 28.75% probability, and Málaga is given a 22.75% chance. Thus, Sporting Gijón is considered the favorite, although the gap with Málaga isn't overwhelming. As for total goals: Over 2.5 is priced at 2.27, Under 2.5 at 1.66, both teams to score: yes at 1.95, no at 1.76. Double chance odds are 1X at 1.23, X2 at 1.85, and 12 at 1.34. For individual team totals: Sporting Gijón Over 1.5 is at 2.08, Málaga Over 1.5 at 3.60. Half-time totals: over 1.5 goals in the second half is at 2.36, under 1.5 at 1.52. Correct score options: 1-0 and 1-1 are at 5.50, 2-0 and 2-1 at 7.00, 0-0 at 7.80, 0-1 at 8.00.

Recent Matches Performance

In their last five matches, Sporting Gijón has averaged 42.8% possession, 3.4 yellow cards, 11.4 fouls, and 2 offsides. Málaga in the same period averaged 49.2% possession, 2.6 yellow cards, 13.2 fouls, and 1.4 offsides. Sporting Gijón's last three results: December 20, 2025, Leganés 0-1 Sporting Gijón; December 16, 2025, Sporting Gijón 0-2 Valencia; December 13, 2025, Sporting Gijón 1-0 Granada. Málaga's recent results: December 21, 2025, Málaga 2-1 Almería; December 14, 2025, Albacete 1-3 Málaga; December 8, 2025, Málaga 1-1 Real Zaragoza. Their last head-to-head was on May 17, 2025: Málaga 2-1 Sporting Gijón.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Over the last five matches, Sporting Gijón has an average total of 1.4 goals per game, scoring 0.8 and conceding 0.6. Málaga averages 3.2 total goals, scoring 2 and conceding 1.2. For over 2.5 goals, Sporting Gijón has 0 out of 5 matches, while Málaga has 3 out of 5. For over 1.5 goals: Sporting Gijón has 1 out of 5 in the second half, Málaga has 3 out of 5 in the second half and 1 out of 5 in the first half. Sporting Gijón tends to play low-scoring games in both halves: 0 out of 5 for over 1.5 in the first half, 1 out of 5 in the second half. Málaga has 3 out of 5 for over 1.5 in the second half, 1 out of 5 in the first half. Scoring intervals: Sporting Gijón often scores between 76-90 minutes (100%), and concedes between 46-60 and 76-90 minutes (40% each). Málaga frequently scores between 31-45 minutes (50%) and concedes most often between 46-60 minutes (50%). Given Sporting Gijón's low scoring and Málaga's consistent attacking play, plus Sporting Gijón's under 2.5 profile and Málaga's over profile, betting on under 2.5 goals at 1.66 seems reasonable. This is supported by Sporting Gijón's low average total and not particularly high-scoring matches, despite Málaga's attacking nature.

Corners: Numbers and Potential Bets

Average corners over 5 games: Sporting Gijón - 6.8, Málaga - 3.6. This totals 10.4, close to the 9.5-10.5 line. For over 9.5 corners: Sporting Gijón has 4 out of 5, Málaga has 2 out of 5. Odds for total corners: over 9.5 is at 1.90, under 9.5 at 1.78. For corners outcome: Sporting Gijón to win at 1.57. Given Sporting Gijón's frequent over 9.5 corners, betting on over 9.5 corners seems justified. It's also worth noting that Sporting Gijón consistently delivers more than 6 corners per match, while Málaga averages around 3-4, supporting the logic of the 9.5-10.5 line for corner bets.