Prediction for match St. Mirren — Kilmarnock

Match Odds and Probabilities

In the Premiership on May 9, St. Mirren will face Kilmarnock. Analysts consider St. Mirren as a slight favorite: their win is priced at 1.97, a draw at 3.48, and a Kilmarnock victory at 3.68. The probability distribution is as follows: St. Mirren - 47.59%, draw - 26.94%, Kilmarnock - 25.47%. These figures show an advantage for St. Mirren, but the gap isn't overwhelming, adding intrigue to the match. There are interesting odds for totals and both teams to score, but bookmakers focus on moderate scoring.

Team Results and Statistics

St. Mirren has suffered two defeats in their last three matches: losing to Dundee FC 0-1 on May 2, Livingston 0-2 on April 25, and being thrashed by Celtic 2-6 on April 19. Kilmarnock looks more confident during this period: they secured a big 3-0 win over Dundee United on May 2, lost to Aberdeen 0-1 on April 25, and drew 2-2 with Dundee FC on April 11. Over the last five games, St. Mirren averages 58% possession, commits 10.25 fouls, receives 1.75 yellow cards, and records 2 offsides. Kilmarnock lags in ball control (47.8%) but fouls more often - 14.6 times per match, receives 1.8 yellows, and is caught offside 1.2 times. In their last head-to-head on February 11, Kilmarnock and St. Mirren played a high-scoring game - 4-3 in favor of Kilmarnock.

How Many Goals to Expect?

There are noticeable differences in scoring between the teams. Over a five-match span, St. Mirren averages 1.5 goals per match, scoring only 0.5 and conceding 1 goal per game. Kilmarnock averages 2.6 total goals, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.2. St. Mirren has only 1 of 5 matches over 2.5 goals, while Kilmarnock has 3 of 5. In the first half, St. Mirren has 1 of 5 games with over 1.5 goals, Kilmarnock 2 of 5. In the second half, both teams recorded 2 of 5 over 1.5 goals. St. Mirren tends to score early (50% in the first 15 minutes), while Kilmarnock also scores most in the 0-15 interval (36%). Both teams are vulnerable late: St. Mirren concedes 50% of goals from the 76th to 90th minute, Kilmarnock 67% in the same period. Statistics suggest Kilmarnock can maintain scoring, while St. Mirren plays more conservatively, making a bet on under 2.5 goals at 1.97 logical: St. Mirren's low scoring and Kilmarnock's inconsistent attack.

Corner Totals Analysis

St. Mirren averages 6.5 corners per game, Kilmarnock 4.4. Over the last five matches, St. Mirren had all 5 games over 9.5 corners, Kilmarnock 2 of 5. The closest to the combined average total is 10.9, with odds for over 9.5 corners at 1.61 and under 9.5 at 2.18. No clear favorite emerges for corner outcomes. Based on statistics, a bet on over 9.5 corners seems justified, considering St. Mirren's high activity in this aspect.