Prediction for match Brest — Marseille, 20.02.2026

Match Analysis: Brest vs Marseille

On February 20th, Brest will face Marseille in Ligue 1. According to the bookmakers, Marseille is the favorite with odds of 1.98 for their victory, while Brest's win is at 3.98 and a draw at 3.84. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Marseille win - 49.67%, draw - 25.61%, Brest win - 24.71%. Among additional bets, over 2.5 goals is offered at 1.81 and both teams to score - yes at 1.63. These figures suggest an expectantly high-scoring game with a Marseille advantage.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Brest has shown form: a draw with Lille (1-1), a win over Lorient (2-0), a draw with Nice (2-2), and losses to Toulouse (0-2) and Lyon (1-2). During the same period, Marseille drew with Strasbourg (2-2), suffered a heavy defeat to PSG (0-5), confidently defeated Rennes (3-0), drew with Paris FC (2-2), and lost to Brugge (0-3). In their head-to-head meeting on November 8, 2025, Marseille defeated Brest 3-0. Secondary statistics show Brest with an average possession of 39.2%, committing 13.6 fouls, 1.6 yellow cards, and 0.6 offsides per game. Marseille averages 49.4% possession, 13.8 fouls, 3.2 yellows, and 1.6 offsides, indicating a more aggressive style and greater ball control.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In their last five matches, Brest averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with a total average of 2.6 goals per game. Marseille has higher figures: 1.4 scored, 2.4 conceded, and a total average of 3.8. For over 2.5 goals, Brest has played over in 2 out of 5 matches, Marseille in 5 out of 5. In the first half, Brest had 3 out of 5 games with at least two goals, Marseille 2 out of 5. In the second half, Brest had 3 out of 5 over 1.5, Marseille 4 out of 5. For goal intervals, Brest most often scores between the 61st and 75th minute (43%) and concedes between the 16th and 30th (33%). Marseille is most productive in the first 15 minutes (33%) and concedes evenly in four intervals: 16-30, 46-60, 61-75, and 76-90 (25% each). These data confirm a high probability of a high-scoring match, especially in the second half. Considering Marseille's over-profile and Brest's stable scoring, a bet on over 2.5 goals seems justified.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Brest averages 3.2 corners per match, Marseille 4.6, totaling 7.8. In the last five games, Brest had 3 out of 5 matches over 9.5 corners, Marseille 2 out of 5. The line offers a corner total of 8.5: over 8.5 is at 1.59, under 8.5 at 2.15. Marseille is favored to win the corner count with odds of 1.68. Given the average figures, it's logical to expect 8-9 corners, but an over 8.5 total is not excluded.