Prediction for match Swansea — Derby County, 25.11.2025

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

On November 25, in the English Championship, Swansea City will face Derby County. According to the 1X2 odds, Swansea City is favored to win with odds of 2.17, translating to a 43.17% chance. A draw is priced at 3.10, implying a 30.22% chance, while a victory for Derby County is at 3.52, with a 26.61% probability. This distribution reflects a moderate advantage for Swansea City, but a draw is also a possibility given the relatively high draw percentage. Other main market options also appear quite balanced, making this match potentially interesting for betting on goal outcomes.

Team Results and Statistics

Looking at secondary statistics, Swansea City averages 52% possession, 1.4 yellow cards, 8 fouls, and 2 offsides per game over a five-match span. Derby County has lower possession at 38.6%, but they average 1.8 yellow cards, 11.2 fouls, and 1 offside. In their last three matches, Swansea City lost to Bristol City (0-3), Ipswich Town (1-4), and Preston North End (1-2). Conversely, Derby County defeated Watford (3-2), Blackburn Rovers (2-1), and Hull City (2-1). In their head-to-head on April 5, 2025, Swansea City was stronger, winning 1-0, which corresponds to an under 2.5 goal outcome. Other recent matches between these teams have also seen both low-scoring and high-scoring results.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Analyzing goal metrics, Swansea City played over 2.5 goals in four of their last five matches, with only one match going under. Derby County has a similar frequency, with 4 out of 5 matches going over 2.5. In the first half, Swansea City had over 1.5 goals twice, while Derby County did so once. In the second half, Swansea City had 4 out of 5 over 1.5 goals, Derby County 3 out of 5. On average, Swansea City scores 0.8 goals and concedes 2.6, while Derby County scores 2 and concedes 1.2 per game. The total goal average in Swansea's matches is 3.4, and for Derby, it's 3.2. In terms of goal timing, Swansea City most often scores either in the first 15 minutes (38%) or early in the second half (46-60, 38%). Derby County most frequently scores between the 61st and 75th minutes (29%). Swansea City concedes most often late in the game (76-90, 56%), while Derby County's goal concessions are more evenly distributed, but also with a second-half emphasis. This statistics, along with the regular occurrence of over 2.5 goals for both teams and high goal averages, suggest a strong likelihood of both teams scoring. This is further supported by Swansea City's defensive issues (2.6 goals conceded) and Derby County's efficient finishing. Therefore, a bet on Both Teams to Score: Yes seems most justified.

Corner Totals Analysis

In terms of corners, Swansea City averages 5.6, and Derby County 5.4 per match. Over the last 5 games, both teams have seen the total corners exceed 9.5 on 4 occasions. Among the corner total odds, over 9.5 is priced at 1.75, while under 9.5 is at 1.96. Swansea City is favored to win the corner count with odds of 1.67. Given the average performance in this metric and the frequency of exceeding the corner total, considering a bet on over 9.5 corners is logical. This is confirmed by the fact that both teams regularly earn 5 or more corners per game.