Prediction for match Turkey — Bulgaria

Match Analysis: Turkey vs Bulgaria

In the World Cup European Qualifiers, Turkey will host Bulgaria on November 15, 2025. According to the odds distribution, Turkey has an overwhelming advantage: their chance of winning is 88.07%, a draw is estimated at 8.65%, and Bulgaria's victory is only 3.28%. The odds for the main outcomes also reflect this disparity: Turkey's win is at 1.08, a draw at 11.00, and Bulgaria's success is offered at 29.00. For total goals, over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.36, and over 3.5 is at 1.83. For the second half, over 1.5 goals is at 1.57.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Turkey has an average possession of 55.4%, 1.2 yellow cards, 8.6 fouls, and 2.8 offsides per game. Bulgaria, over the same period, has a possession of 31%, receives 1.8 yellow cards, commits 10.8 fouls, and is caught offside 2.2 times. Recent matches for Turkey: 14.10.2025 - Turkey vs Georgia 4-1, 11.10.2025 - Bulgaria vs Turkey 1-6, 07.09.2025 - Turkey vs Spain 0-6. For Bulgaria: 14.10.2025 - Spain vs Bulgaria 4-0, 11.10.2025 - Bulgaria vs Turkey 1-6, 07.09.2025 - Georgia vs Bulgaria 3-0. In their head-to-head on October 11, Turkey thrashed Bulgaria 6-1, comfortably covering the over 2.5 goals line.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Both teams have frequently hit the over in their last 5 games. Turkey has gone over 2.5 goals in 4 out of 5, while Bulgaria has done so in all 5. By halves, Turkey has exceeded 1.5 goals in 4 out of 5 for both the first and second halves. Bulgaria has done so in 3 out of 5 for each half. On average, Turkey scores 2.6 goals per match, concedes 2.2, with total match goals averaging 4.8. Bulgaria scores 0.4, concedes 3.6, with an average total of 4. Turkey most frequently scores between the 0-15 and 31-45 minute marks (25% each), while Bulgaria often scores late (76-90, 30%). Bulgaria's defense regularly falters in the second half, conceding 30% of goals between 46-60 minutes, while Turkey concedes 38% in the same interval. Given these stats, a bet on the second half total over 1.5 at 1.57 seems justified: both teams often play more openly after the break, and Bulgaria frequently collapses in the latter stages.

Corner Totals Analysis

Turkey averages 7 corners over 5 matches, while Bulgaria averages 2.4. In their last five, Turkey has gone over 9.5 corners in 4 out of 5, and Bulgaria in 3 out of 5. The odds for over 9.5 corners are 1.95, and under 9.5 are 1.85. Turkey is the favorite for corner outcomes with odds of 1.06. Considering Turkey's high corner count and Bulgaria's rare exceedance of 3, a bet on Turkey's individual corner total over 7.5 at 1.83 or the overall total over 9.5 seems logical.