Prediction for match Toluca — Tijuana, 14.02.2026

Match Analysis: Toluca vs Tijuana

On February 14th in Liga MX, Toluca will face Tijuana. According to the 1X2 odds, Toluca is the favorite: their win is priced at 1.32, a draw at 5.00, and a win for Tijuana at 8.60. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Toluca - 70.55%, draw - 18.62%, Tijuana - 10.83%. This indicates a significant advantage for Toluca, although the odds for totals and both teams to score are more balanced. The odds for over 2.75 goals are 1.59, and both teams to score: yes - 1.78, no - 1.93.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Toluca has an average possession of 60.4%, with 2.8 yellow cards, 14.8 fouls, and 2 offsides per game. Tijuana has 50.8% possession, 2.4 yellow cards, 14.2 fouls, and 1 offside. In their last three matches, Toluca played as follows: February 7, 2026 - Toluca vs Cruz Azul 1-1, January 31, 2026 - Puebla vs Toluca 0-0, January 15, 2026 - Toluca vs Santos Laguna 3-1. Tijuana's recent games: February 7, 2026 - Tijuana vs Puebla 0-0, February 1, 2026 - Monterrey vs Tijuana 2-2, January 18, 2026 - Tijuana vs Atlético San Luis 1-1. In their last head-to-head on October 23, 2025, Tijuana and Toluca played to a 0-0 draw.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In the last five matches, Toluca has scored an average of 1.4 goals per game and conceded 0.6, with an overall average total of 2. During this period, Toluca had two matches over 2.5 total goals and three under; only once was there over 1.5 goals in the first half, and twice in the second half. Tijuana has an average of 1 goal scored and 0.8 conceded, with an overall total of 1.8. They also had two matches over 2.5 total goals, with similar timing: once over 1.5 goals in the first half and twice in the second. Toluca most frequently scores between the 46th and 60th minutes (57%), while Tijuana scores in two intervals: 16-30 and 76-90 minutes (50% each). Toluca concedes evenly throughout the match, while Tijuana most often concedes between 61-75 minutes (40%). Overall, neither team shows a strong over-profile, but they don't have a strong under-trend either. Toluca's scoring and conceding stats are higher than Tijuana's, and both teams have had two matches over 2.5 total goals out of five. Considering these data, a bet on over 2.75 goals at 1.59 seems justified: both teams can score, and Toluca regularly creates chances, especially after halftime.

Corner Totals Analysis

In their last five matches, Toluca averages 7.8 corners, while Tijuana averages 3.6. For totals over 9.5 corners, Toluca achieved this in two out of five matches, and Tijuana in three out of five. The total closest to their combined average (7.8 + 3.6 = 11.4) is 11.5, but only for 9.5 total corners are there two outcomes: over 9.5 corners is priced at 1.81, under 9.5 at 1.87. Toluca is favored in corner outcomes with odds of 1.19. Given the statistics, a bet on over 9.5 corners seems logical, as both teams show activity in this aspect in several matches, and Toluca consistently delivers many corners.