Prediction for match Toluca — Guadalajara

Odds and Probability of Match Outcome

In Liga MX on February 28, Toluca will face Guadalajara. The main odds for the outcomes are as follows: Toluca's win is priced at 1.97, a draw at 3.12, and a Guadalajara win at 4.06. In terms of probabilities, Toluca has 47.24%, a draw has 29.83%, and Guadalajara has 22.92%. The most likely outcome is a victory for Toluca, which is supported by both the odds and probability distribution. The tournament status of both teams is not mentioned, but based on the odds and percentages, Toluca appears to have the advantage.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Toluca has shown a high ball possession rate of 62.4%, receives an average of 2 yellow cards, commits 12.8 fouls, and is caught offside 2.6 times per game. Guadalajara slightly trails in these metrics: 58.6% possession, 2.8 yellow cards, 13.2 fouls, and 1.8 offsides. In their last three matches, Toluca played as follows: 02/22/2026 - Necaxa vs Toluca - 0-3, 02/14/2026 - Toluca vs Tijuana - 1-0, 02/07/2026 - Toluca vs Cruz Azul - 1-1. During the same period, Guadalajara had these results: 02/22/2026 - Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara - 2-1, 02/15/2026 - Guadalajara vs Club America - 1-0, 02/07/2026 - Mazatlan vs Guadalajara - 1-2. In their last head-to-head on 09/21/2025, Guadalajara lost to Toluca 0-3.

How Many Goals Will Be in the Toluca vs Guadalajara Match

On average over five matches, Toluca scores 1.6 goals and concedes 0.4, while Guadalajara scores 1.8 and concedes 1.2. Toluca has seen over 2.5 goals in 2 out of 5 matches, and Guadalajara in 4 out of 5. In the first half, Toluca had no matches with over 1.5 goals, while Guadalajara had 2 out of 5. In the second half, Toluca had 2 out of 5 with over 1.5 goals, and Guadalajara 3 out of 5. The average total goals for Toluca is 2, and for Guadalajara, it's 3. In terms of goal intervals: Toluca most frequently scores between 46-60 minutes (60%), while Guadalajara scores between 31-45 minutes (50%). For goals conceded: Toluca often concedes late in the game (76-90 minutes, 67%), and Guadalajara in two intervals: 31-45 and 76-90 (29% each). Overall, both teams show decent scoring ability, with Guadalajara having a tendency towards higher totals. Toluca's defense appears solid, but the attacking potential of both teams suggests at least two goals can be expected. The main prediction is over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.81.

Corners in the Match

Toluca averages 7 corners per match, while Guadalajara averages 3.8. In the last five matches, Toluca had 2 out of 5 matches with over 9.5 corners, while Guadalajara had none. Based on the odds, over 8.5 corners is priced at 1.60, and under 8.5 at 2.11. Toluca is favored in the corner market with odds of 1.57. Considering Toluca's average activity in corner kicks and Guadalajara's lower performance in this aspect, it's logical to consider a bet on over 8.5 corners, as well as Toluca's advantage in corner count. However, Guadalajara's low frequency of high corner totals might limit the overall count.