Prediction for match Toluca — Monterrey, 07.12.2025

Odds and Probabilities for the Match Outcome

In Liga MX on December 7, 2025, Toluca will face Monterrey. The odds for the match outcome are as follows: Toluca win at 1.60, draw at 4.30, Monterrey win at 4.65. The probability percentages are distributed as follows: Toluca 58.27%, draw 21.68%, Monterrey 20.05%. Based on this data, Toluca is considered the favorite, while Monterrey is seen as the underdog. It's worth noting that the probability gap between the teams is quite noticeable, which is reflected in the odds.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Toluca has an average possession of 56.8%, receives 1.6 yellow cards, commits 12.6 fouls, and has 2.4 offsides per game. Monterrey, over the same period, holds possession 50.6% of the time, receives 2.4 yellow cards, commits 15.2 fouls, and has 0.8 offsides. Looking at Toluca's last three matches: on December 4, Monterrey defeated Toluca 1-0, on November 30, Toluca drew 0-0 with Juárez, and on November 27, Toluca beat Juárez 2-1. Monterrey's last three encounters were: December 4, Monterrey beat Toluca 1-0, November 29, Club América defeated Monterrey 2-1, and November 27, Monterrey won 2-0 against Club América. The most recent head-to-head ended on December 4 with Monterrey winning 1-0.

Goals Statistics

In their last five games, Toluca has an average total of 1.2 goals, scoring 0.8 and conceding 0.4 per match. Monterrey's numbers are significantly higher: an average of 2.8 goals, with 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded. For over 2.5 goals, Toluca has only 1 out of 5, while Monterrey has 2 out of 5. In the first half, there were no matches with over 1.5 goals for Toluca and only one for Monterrey. In the second half, over 1.5 goals occurred in 1 out of 5 for Toluca and 2 out of 5 for Monterrey. Toluca most frequently scores between the 31st and 45th minutes (50%), while Monterrey scores in the same interval (40%). In terms of conceding, Toluca has two peaks: 46-60 and 61-75 minutes (50% each), and Monterrey's are 61-75 and 76-90 minutes (50% each). Against this backdrop, betting on under 2.5 goals seems justified: neither team has a strong over-profile, and Toluca's scoring stats are particularly low.

Corners in the Match

Toluca averages 7 corners per match, while Monterrey averages 2.2. For over 9.5 corners, Toluca has 4 out of 5, and Monterrey only 1 out of 5. Among the corner lines, the total closest to the average (9.2) is 9.5: over 9.5 corners is priced at 1.89, under 9.5 at 1.85. In the corners outcome, Toluca is the favorite with odds of 1.31. It makes sense to consider betting on Toluca's individual total corners over 6.5, given their consistent performance in recent matches and their generally high corner count.