Prediction for match Toluca — Tigres UANL, 15.12.2025

Match Analysis: Toluca vs Tigres UANL

On December 15th in Liga MX, Toluca will face Tigres UANL. The odds for 1X2 are as follows: a win for Toluca is priced at 1.93, a draw at 3.46, and a win for Tigres UANL at 3.76. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Toluca - 48.28%, draw - 26.93%, Tigres UANL - 24.78%. Based on the main odds, bookmakers see Toluca as the favorite, with the draw and a win for Tigres UANL being rated higher. This reflects the balance of power based on current form and team statistics.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Toluca has an average possession of 54.8%, with 1.6 yellow cards, 13 fouls, and 1.4 offsides per game. Tigres UANL averages 48.8% possession, 2.2 yellow cards, 16.2 fouls, and 0.6 offsides. Toluca's last three matches: 12.12.2025 - Tigres UANL - Toluca 1-0, 07.12.2025 - Toluca - Monterrey 3-2, 04.12.2025 - Monterrey - Toluca 1-0. Tigres UANL's last three games: 12.12.2025 - Tigres UANL - Toluca 1-0, 07.12.2025 - Tigres UANL - Cruz Azul 1-1, 04.12.2025 - Cruz Azul - Tigres UANL 1-1. In their last encounter on 12.12.2025, Tigres UANL defeated Toluca 1-0. Overall, both teams have been showing a tight competition in recent matches, with Tigres UANL playing slightly more aggressively and committing more fouls.

Goals Statistics

In a series of five matches, Toluca has an average of 2 goals per match, scoring 1 and conceding 1 per game. Tigres UANL has a higher average total of 2.6, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1. Regarding over 2.5 goals, both teams have 2 out of 5 matches going over and 3 out of 5 under. In the first half, more than 1.5 goals occurred only once in 5 matches for both teams, while in the second half, Toluca had 2 out of 5 and Tigres UANL 4 out of 5 over 1.5 goals. Toluca most frequently scores between the 31-45 and 46-60 minute marks (33% each), while Tigres UANL scores most often between the 16-30 and 61-75 minute marks (25% each). Toluca concedes most often after the break: 46-60 and 61-75 minutes (50% each), with 67% of Tigres UANL's conceded goals also occurring between 61-75 minutes. This suggests that the second half tends to be more productive, especially for Tigres UANL. Although over 2.5 goals doesn't occur frequently, the second-half dynamics and average goals scored and conceded make the over 2.5 goals bet at 1.78 reasonable.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Toluca averages 5.4 corners per match, while Tigres UANL averages 6.2. For over 9.5 corners: Toluca has 2 out of 5 matches, Tigres UANL has 3 out of 5. Among available corner totals, the line for over 9.5 is priced at 1.88, and under 9.5 at 1.86. Toluca is the favorite for corners with odds of 1.41. Considering the average values of both teams and the frequency of overs, a bet on over 9.5 corners seems justified, especially if the teams attack more in the second half. It's also worth noting individual performances: Toluca consistently has over 5 corners, while Tigres UANL's number is even higher, highlighting both teams' attacking intent.