Prediction for match Tondela — Alverca, 13.02.2026

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

In the Primeira Liga of Portugal on 13.02.2026, Tondela will face Alverca. According to the 1X2 odds, a victory for Tondela is priced at 2.68, Alverca at 2.92, and a draw at 3.16. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Tondela - 36.15%, draw - 30.66%, Alverca - 33.18%. The odds and percentages indicate closely matched chances, with a slight edge in probability and odds for Tondela. Bookmakers don't highlight a clear favorite in this clash, which is reflected in both the percentages and the odds for the match.

Team Results and Statistics

Tondela's last three matches were: 07.02.2026 - Estoril - Tondela - 2-2, 01.02.2026 - Tondela - Benfica - 0-0, 25.01.2026 - Famalicão - Tondela - 3-0. Alverca's last three results were: 08.02.2026 - Benfica - Alverca - 2-1, 31.01.2026 - Alverca - Estrela - 1-1, 25.01.2026 - Braga - Alverca - 5-0. Looking at head-to-head meetings, the last game between these teams was on 12.09.2025: Alverca - Tondela - 1-0. Over a five-match span, Tondela's average possession is 34.2%, yellow cards 2, fouls 15.6, offsides 2. Alverca's possession is 42%, yellow cards 2, fouls 15.2, offsides 0.4. These numbers show that both teams play quite aggressively and often break the rules, with Alverca having slightly more ball control. Both Tondela and Alverca have the same number of yellow cards over five matches, but Tondela is caught offside more often. In recent matches, both teams have suffered defeats, with each recording a single draw.

How Many Goals Will Be in the Tondela - Alverca Match

In the last 5 games, Tondela had 2 matches with over 2.5 goals, and 3 with under. Alverca had the opposite: 3 out of 5 over 2.5, 2 under. The average goal count in Tondela's matches is 1.8, while Alverca's is 2.8. Goals scored: Tondela 0.4, Alverca 1. Goals conceded: Tondela - 1.4, Alverca - 1.8. By halves, Tondela had over 1.5 goals in the first half in only 1 out of 5 games, and in the second half in 2 out of 5. Alverca had over 1.5 goals in the first half in 2 out of 5, and in the second half in 3 out of 5. Tondela most often scores between the 16-30, 61-75, and 76-90 minutes (29% each), and concedes evenly at the beginning, middle, and end (33% each). Alverca scores most often between the 16-30 and 76-90 minutes (33% each), and concedes with the same peaks plus 61-75 minutes. These data suggest that Alverca tends to play more high-scoring games, but Tondela's scoring stats are low. Meanwhile, over 1.75 goals is priced at 1.52, which seems the most logical choice: Alverca has three overs of 2.5 out of 5, Tondela has two, and the average total for both teams is 2.3. There is also support by halves, especially for Alverca in the second half of matches. This match is expected not to be low-scoring, and a bet on over 1.75 goals looks justified.

Analysis of Corner Totals

For the average number of corners over 5 matches, Tondela has 2.4, Alverca 3.4. For the total over 9.5 corners: Tondela had only 1 out of 5 matches over, Alverca 2 out of 5. Adding up the averages, we get 5.8 corners between them. Among the available totals, the line closest to this sum is 7.5-8.5. For a total of 8.5, there are both outcomes: over 8.5 is priced at 1.50, under 8.5 at 2.31. A win in corners for Tondela is priced at 1.92, for Alverca at 2.35. Based on the statistics, neither team stands out in delivering corners, and a bet on a low corner total seems logical. This match is not expected to see a high number of corners, given the low average figures for both teams over a five-match span.