Prediction for match Tondela — Arouca, 03.01.2026

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match

In the Primeira Liga on January 3, Tondela will face Arouca. The odds for a Tondela win are 2.15, a draw is at 3.43, and an Arouca win is at 3.64. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Tondela - 45.10%, draw - 28.27%, Arouca - 26.64%. The odds favor Tondela, but the gap between the teams isn't too large. The match promises to be quite competitive, considering the distribution of percentages and odds. The betting line also highlights options for totals and both teams to score, indicating attention to the potential scoring in the match.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Tondela has an average ball possession of 42.4%, with 2.6 yellow cards per game, 14 fouls, and 2.2 offsides. Arouca has 43.2% possession, 3.2 yellow cards, 13.4 fouls, and 1.2 offsides. Tondela's last three matches: 21.12.2025 - Tondela vs Casa Pia - 1-2, 15.12.2025 - Nacional vs Tondela - 3-1, 07.12.2025 - Tondela vs Porto - 0-2. Arouca's last three games: 28.12.2025 - Arouca vs Gil Vicente - 2-2, 21.12.2025 - Santa Clara vs Arouca - 0-0, 14.12.2025 - Arouca vs Alverca - 1-0. In their head-to-head on 19.03.2022, the teams drew 2-2. The statistics on cards and fouls point to a certain toughness in both teams, and their similar ball possession indicates a comparable style of play.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In their last five matches, Tondela has an average of 2.2 goals per game, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.6. Arouca's average is 2.6, with 0.8 scored and 1.8 conceded. For over 2.5 goals, Tondela has 2 out of 5, while Arouca has 3 out of 5. For over 1.5 goals in the first half, Tondela had none, and Arouca had 3 out of 5. In the second half, Tondela had 3 out of 5 for over 1.5, Arouca had 1 out of 5. Tondela most frequently scores between the 76th and 90th minutes (50%), while Arouca scores most often in the first 15 minutes (33%). Tondela is most vulnerable between the 46th and 60th minutes (33%), and Arouca towards the end of the first half (31-45, 38%). Overall, both teams show low scoring efficiency, especially in attack: Tondela with 0.6 goals per match and Arouca with 0.8. While Arouca shows a tendency for over 2.5 goals, Tondela does not have a consistent over-profile. Given the low scoring efficiency of both teams and the average frequency of over 2.5 goals, it's logical to consider a bet on under 2.5 goals at 1.84.

Analysis of Corner Totals

On average, Tondela earns 5 corners per game, while Arouca gets 3.8. In their last five matches, Tondela had 3 out of 5 games go over 9.5 corners, and Arouca had 2 out of 5. Among the corner totals offered, the line closest to the average sum (8.8) is 8.5, with both options available: over 8.5 corners at 1.47, under 8.5 at 2.39. For corners, Tondela is the favorite with odds of 1.69. Considering both teams' average activity in corner kicks and the frequency of over 9.5, a bet on over 8.5 corners seems justified. Overall, both teams are capable of maintaining the pace in corners, especially if the match is evenly contested.