Prediction for match Tondela — Casa Pia, 21.12.2025

Match Analysis: Tondela vs Casa Pia

In the Primeira Liga on December 21, Tondela will face Casa Pia. The odds for a Tondela victory are 2.29, a draw is 3.25, and a win for Casa Pia is 3.49. According to the probability distribution: Tondela - 42.36%, draw - 29.85%, Casa Pia - 27.79%. Based on these percentages, Tondela has a slight edge, but a draw is also highly rated. The most likely outcome according to the odds is a Tondela win, but the match promises to be competitive given the close probabilities and odds.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Tondela has an average possession of 42.2%, receives an average of 3 yellow cards, commits 15.4 fouls, and is caught offside 1.8 times per game. Casa Pia's stats are as follows: possession - 46%, yellow cards - 3, fouls - 13.6, offsides - 0.6. In their last three matches, Tondela lost 1-3 to Nacional, lost 0-2 to Porto, and defeated Gil Vicente 1-0. Casa Pia recently drew 1-1 with Gil Vicente, lost 0-1 to Santa Clara, and lost 0-2 to Alverca. These stats reflect a certain discipline from both teams and a tendency for tough midfield battles. Notably, neither team has shown significant spikes in fouls or cards in their last five matches, indicating stability in these aspects.

Teams' Goal Scoring Streaks

Over the last five games, Tondela's average total goals per match is 2.4, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.6 on average. Casa Pia is more prolific: their matches average 3.4 goals, with 1.2 scored and 2.2 conceded. Both teams have a balance on over 2.5 goals: 2 out of 5 matches went over, 3 out of 5 went under. In the first half, over 1.5 goals occurred in only 1 out of 5 matches for both teams, but in the second half, this figure rises to 3 out of 5. Goal intervals: Tondela most frequently scores between the 61st-75th and 76th-90th minutes (40% each), while Casa Pia scores mostly between the 46th-60th minutes (43%). In terms of goals conceded: Tondela is most vulnerable from the 46th to 60th minute (33%), Casa Pia from the 61st to 90th minutes (36% in the last two quarters). These data suggest both teams are more active in the second half, with Casa Pia's scoring stats noticeably higher. Meanwhile, Tondela struggles with finishing, as shown by their low average goals scored. In this situation, a bet on over 2.0 goals at 1.64 seems logical: both teams have the potential for a productive second half, and the average goal stats suggest at least two goals.

Corner Totals Analysis

Tondela averages 4.4 corners per game, Casa Pia 4.2, totaling 8.6. In a five-match series, the total corners over 9.5 occurred twice for each team. Odds for total corners: over 8.5 is 1.56, under 8.5 is 2.18. Tondela's win on corners is priced at 1.66. Given these figures, it's reasonable to consider a bet on over 8.5 corners, as both teams consistently deliver around 4-5 corners per match, and the frequency of over 9.5 corners is 2 out of 5 for each. Also, a bet on Tondela's win on corners is worth considering, given their slightly higher average.