Prediction for match TSV Hartberg — Sturm Graz, 30.11.2025

Odds and Outcome Probabilities

In the Austrian Bundesliga on November 30th, TSV Hartberg will face Sturm Graz. According to the 1X2 odds, bookmakers favor Sturm Graz with odds of 1.78, giving them a 52.59% chance of winning. A draw is priced at 3.65 (25.64%), while a Hartberg victory is at 4.30 (21.77%). This reflects Sturm Graz's advantage in the current season. The match promises to be interesting from a statistical perspective, considering the differences in scoring and ball possession between the teams.

Team Results and Statistics

Looking at the last five matches, Hartberg averages 33% possession, 2 yellow cards, 11.2 fouls, and 1.2 offsides per game. Sturm Graz holds 53.6% possession, receives 1.2 yellow cards, commits 13.8 fouls, and 1.4 offsides. Hartberg's last three matches: November 22, 2025 - Hartberg vs Ried 2-0, November 8, 2025 - Wolfsberger vs Hartberg 1-2, November 1, 2025 - Hartberg vs Austria Vienna 2-1. Sturm Graz's recent games: November 27, 2025 - Panathinaikos vs Sturm Graz 2-1, November 23, 2025 - Sturm Graz vs LASK 1-3, November 9, 2025 - Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg 1-1. In their last head-to-head on September 28, 2025, Sturm Graz won 1-0 with a total under 2.5 goals.

Goals Statistics

Over their last five games, both teams have an average total of 2.4 goals per match. Hartberg scores 1.6 and concedes 0.8, while Sturm Graz scores 0.8 and concedes 1.6. For over 2.5 goals, both teams have 3 out of 5 matches over, 2 under. In the first half, more than 1.5 goals were recorded once for Hartberg and twice for Sturm Graz, while in the second half, it happened twice for each team. Hartberg most often scores between the 76th and 90th minutes (43%), while Sturm Graz scores most frequently from the 61st to the 75th minute (50%). In terms of goals conceded, Hartberg concedes most often between the 61st and 75th minutes (40%), and Sturm Graz from the 31st to the 45th minute (43%). Given the average scoring rate and frequency of over 2.5 goals, as well as the distribution of goals by halves and intervals, a bet on over 2.5 goals at 1.78 seems logical.

Corners in the Match

On average, Hartberg earns 1.8 corners, while Sturm Graz earns 4.4 per game. The frequency of over 9.5 total corners is 1 out of 5 for Hartberg, 3 out of 5 for Sturm Graz. The odds closest to the average total corners (6.2) are for 8.75: over 8.75 at 1.50, under 8.75 at 2.35. In terms of corners, Sturm Graz is favored with odds of 1.55. Based on statistics, Sturm Graz consistently earns more corners, and the overall total often remains below 10. In this match, it makes sense to consider a bet on Sturm Graz's individual total corners or a total in the range of 8-10.