Prediction for match UNAM Pumas — Toluca

Odds and Outcome Probability

In Liga MX, UNAM Pumas will face Toluca on March 4, 2026. According to the 1X2 odds, Toluca is favored to win with odds of 1.97, giving them a 47.23% chance of victory. A draw is priced at 3.32 (28.02%), while a win for UNAM Pumas is at 3.76 with a probability of 24.75%. This suggests that Toluca has shown more consistent performances in recent matches, particularly in defense and stability. The teams have different profiles in attack and defense, promising an intriguing battle for control.

Team Results and Statistics

Over the last five games, UNAM Pumas averages 52.8% possession, receives 1.4 yellow cards, commits 11.8 fouls, and records 0.8 offsides per match. In comparison, Toluca averages 56.8% possession, 2.4 yellow cards, 13.8 fouls, and 2.8 offsides. In their last three matches, UNAM Pumas played as follows: 28.02.2026 - Tijuana - UNAM Pumas - 1-1, 22.02.2026 - UNAM Pumas - Monterrey - 2-0, 14.02.2026 - Puebla - UNAM Pumas - 2-3. Toluca's last three matches were: 28.02.2026 - Toluca - Guadalajara - 2-0, 22.02.2026 - Necaxa - Toluca - 0-3, 14.02.2026 - Toluca - Tijuana - 1-0. Their last head-to-head meeting was on 17.08.2025, ending in a 1-1 draw.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In the last five matches, UNAM Pumas exceeded the 2.5 goal total twice and stayed below it three times. Toluca exceeded the 2.5 goal total only once, with four matches ending under. UNAM Pumas averages 1.8 goals scored per game, while Toluca averages 1.4. UNAM Pumas concedes 1 goal per match, whereas Toluca concedes only 0.2. The average total goals per match for UNAM Pumas is 2.8, and for Toluca, it's 1.6. In the first half, UNAM Pumas exceeded 1.5 goals four out of five times, but only once in the second half. Toluca exceeded 1.5 goals in the first half only once and the same in the second half. UNAM Pumas most frequently scores between the 31st and 45th minutes (38%) and concedes 67% of their goals in this period. Toluca most often scores between the 16th and 30th minutes (50%) and concedes 80% of their goals in the final minutes (76-90). Given Toluca's recent low scoring and strong defense, betting on under 2.5 goals at 1.94 is logical.

Corner Kick Analysis

Over the last five matches, UNAM Pumas averages 2.6 corners, while Toluca averages 6.4. For over 9.5 corners, UNAM Pumas exceeded this total once, and Toluca twice. The odds for over 9.5 corners are 2.12, and under 9.5 is 1.64. Toluca is favored in corner outcomes with odds of 1.69. It is expected that Toluca will create more opportunities, and the total corners could reach 9-10 per match. However, UNAM Pumas rarely delivers many corners, reducing the likelihood of a high total in this aspect.