Prediction for match Union Berlin — Bayern, 03.12.2025

Match Analysis: Union Berlin vs Bayern Munich

In the DFB Pokal on December 3rd, Union Berlin will face Bayern Munich, and according to bookmakers, the advantage is clearly on the side of the Munich team. Bayern's win is given odds of 1.31, while Union Berlin's win is at 9.90, and a draw is at 5.85. The probability percentages are distributed as follows: Bayern - 73.73%, draw - 16.51%, Union Berlin - 9.76%. This setup indicates a clear dominance of Bayern in experts' expectations, supported not only by the odds but also by the statistical indicators of both teams.

Team Statistics and Scores

Looking at additional metrics, Union Berlin has an average ball possession of 40.2% over the last five matches, receives 3 yellow cards, commits 13.2 fouls, and is caught offside 3.2 times per game. Bayern significantly outperforms in possession with 63.2%, records 2.2 yellow cards, 8.8 fouls, and 2.4 offsides. In their last three matches, Union Berlin lost to Heidenheim 1-2, beat St. Pauli 1-0, and drew 2-2 with Bayern. Bayern, during the same period, beat St. Pauli 3-1, lost to Arsenal 1-3, and thrashed Freiburg 6-2. The last head-to-head match was on November 8, 2025, and ended in a 2-2 draw.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In terms of goal scoring, Union Berlin averages a total of 2.2 goals over a five-match series, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1. Bayern shows a very high average of 4.6 goals per game, scoring 2.8 and conceding 1.8. Union Berlin has hit the over 2.5 total in 3 out of 5 matches, while Bayern has done so in 5 out of 5. In the first half, Union Berlin was over 1.5 goals twice out of five, and Bayern 5 out of 5. In the second half, Union Berlin was over 1.5 goals twice out of five, Bayern 4 out of 5. In terms of goal timing, Union Berlin most frequently scores in each of the three intervals of the first half and in the final minutes (76-90 minutes, 25% each), while Bayern is most prolific in the last 15 minutes (40%). Union Berlin most frequently concedes in the final minutes (76-90, 50%), while Bayern concedes early (0-15, 38%) and at the end of the first half (31-45, 38%). Given Bayern's high scoring ability and Union Berlin's less than watertight defense, it is logical to expect at least three goals. The over 2.5 total is at 1.39, but the over 3.0 total at 1.61 looks more appealing, considering Bayern's attacking potential and frequent overs in their matches.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

On average, Union Berlin takes 5.8 corners over 5 games, Bayern 4. This totals 9.8 per match. Union Berlin has hit the over 9.5 corners total in all five recent matches, Bayern 3 times out of 5. The total closest to the average is 9.5: over 9.5 corners is at 1.81, under 9.5 at 1.94. Bayern is the favorite in corner outcomes with odds of 1.23. Based on statistics, a bet on over 9.5 corners seems justified, especially considering Union Berlin's activity in this component. Individual corner totals for Union Berlin are also worth considering, given their average above 5 per game.