Prediction for match Union Berlin — Borussia Dortmund, 24.01.2026

Odds and Probability of Match Outcome

The Bundesliga clash between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund draws attention not only due to the status of the teams but also the betting odds. Borussia Dortmund is favored with odds of 2.13, while Union Berlin is at 3.74 and a draw is priced at 3.58. In terms of probabilities: Union Berlin - 26.31%, draw - 27.49%, Borussia Dortmund - 46.20%. Therefore, Borussia Dortmund has the highest probability, as reflected by the lowest odds for their victory. Bookmakers' expectations are based on Borussia Dortmund's higher potential, although Union Berlin is also capable of putting up a fight, as indicated by the relatively small difference in percentages between a draw and a Union Berlin win.

Recent Matches Overview

In their last five matches, Union Berlin has shown the following averages: 45.2% possession, 2 yellow cards, 12.6 fouls, and 0.6 offsides. Borussia Dortmund, in the same period, has 54.4% possession, 2.2 yellow cards, 11.2 fouls, and 1.2 offsides per game on average. Union Berlin's last three matches: January 18, 2026 - Stuttgart vs. Union Berlin - 1-1, January 15, 2026 - Augsburg vs. Union Berlin - 1-1, January 10, 2026 - Union Berlin vs. Mainz 05 - 2-2. Borussia Dortmund's last three matches: January 20, 2026 - Tottenham vs. Borussia Dortmund - 2-0, January 17, 2026 - Borussia Dortmund vs. St. Pauli - 3-2, January 13, 2026 - Borussia Dortmund vs. Werder Bremen - 3-0. The last head-to-head encounter between these teams was on August 31, 2025, ending with a 3-0 victory for Borussia Dortmund.

Goal Scoring Trends

In their last five matches, Union Berlin has an average of 2.6 goals per game, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1 on average. In terms of over 2.5 goals: Union Berlin has 2 out of 5 matches over, while Borussia Dortmund has 3 out of 5 over. Borussia Dortmund scores an average of 2.2 goals and concedes 1.4, with a total average of 3.6 goals in their matches. By halves: Union Berlin hasn't seen over 1.5 goals in the first half in any of their last 5 games, but had 3 out of 5 over 1.5 in the second half. Borussia Dortmund has 2 out of 5 over 1.5 in the first half and 3 out of 5 in the second half. For goal intervals: Union Berlin most often scores between 76-90 minutes (43%), and concedes in this interval 50% of the time. Borussia Dortmund also frequently scores between 76-90 minutes (38%), but most goals conceded come between 61-75 minutes (60%). Considering both teams have decent scoring records and Borussia Dortmund shows a tendency for high totals, betting on over 2.5 goals at 1.99 seems logical.

Corners Total Analysis

Union Berlin averages 4.6 corners per match, while Borussia Dortmund averages 4.2. In their last five matches, Union Berlin had over 9.5 corners twice, and Borussia Dortmund also had 2 out of 5. The closest total to the average is 8.5, with odds of over 8.5 corners at 1.50 and under 8.5 at 2.34. The outcome for corners favors Borussia Dortmund at 1.89. Overall, both teams are capable of earning 4-5 corners, making a bet on over 8.5 corners logical for this match. You might also consider betting on Borussia Dortmund to win the corners, given their attacking style and average stats.