Prediction for match Vasco da Gama — Bahia, 12.02.2026

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

Vasco da Gama will face Bahia in Serie A on February 12, 2026. The odds for a Vasco da Gama win are set at 2.57, with a draw and Bahia win both priced at 3.06. Probability-wise: Vasco da Gama is given a 37.32% chance, while a draw and a Bahia win are both at 31.34%. Among additional markets, the over 2.5 goals is at 1.92, under 2.5 goals is also at 1.92, both teams to score - yes at 1.64, no at 2.13. The double chance X2 is at 1.52. For individual totals: Vasco da Gama over 1 goal is at 1.51, Bahia over 1 goal is at 1.67. The most likely outcome according to the odds is a Vasco da Gama win, but the gap between the teams is minimal.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Vasco da Gama averaged 65.6% possession, with 0.4 yellow cards, 10.6 fouls, and 0.4 offsides per game. During the same period, Bahia averaged 49.6% possession, received 2.4 yellow cards, committed 14.8 fouls, and were caught offside 2 times per match. Recent games for Vasco da Gama: February 8 - Vasco da Gama 2-0 Botafogo, February 5 - Vasco da Gama 1-1 Chapecoense, February 2 - Madureira 0-0 Vasco da Gama. Bahia's recent matches: February 5 - Bahia 1-1 Fluminense, January 28 - Corinthians 1-2 Bahia, December 7 - Fluminense 2-0 Bahia. In their last head-to-head on November 23, 2025, Bahia defeated Vasco da Gama 1-0.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Over a series of five matches, Vasco da Gama has an average total of 2.0 goals per game, slightly lower than Bahia's 2.2. Vasco da Gama scores 1.4 goals and concedes 0.6, while Bahia scores 1.2 and concedes 1. For over 2.5 goals, Vasco da Gama has 2 out of 5, Bahia only 1 out of 5. In the first half, Vasco da Gama had 1 out of 5 for over 1.5, Bahia 3 out of 5. In the second half, Vasco da Gama had 3 out of 5 for over 1.5, Bahia only 1 out of 5. For goal intervals: Vasco da Gama most frequently scores between 46-60 minutes (60%), Bahia between 31-45 and 76-90 minutes (25% each). For goals conceded: Vasco da Gama often concedes between 61-75 minutes (33%), Bahia between 16-30 and 31-45 minutes (50% each). Overall, both teams are not prone to high-scoring matches, with over 2.5 goals occurring in only two out of five matches for each. Against this backdrop, a bet on under 2.5 goals at 1.92 looks the most logical.

Analysis of Corner Totals

Vasco da Gama averages 6.2 corners per match, Bahia 5.4. For over 9.5 corners: both teams have 3 out of 5 matches going over. Among available corner totals, the one closest to the average sum (11.6) is total 11, with odds of over 11 at 3.48, under 11 at 1.26. For the corner outcome, Vasco da Gama is favored with odds of 1.83. Considering the average activity of both teams in terms of corners, a bet on over 9.5 or 10 corners is logical, although the frequency slightly favors 9.5+.