Prediction for match Vasco da Gama — Corinthians, 21.12.2025

Match Analysis: Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians

On December 21st, Vasco da Gama will face Corinthians in the Copa do Brasil. The 1X2 odds are set at 2.44 for Vasco da Gama, 2.84 for a draw, and 3.28 for a Corinthians victory. The implied probabilities are 38.42% for a Vasco da Gama win, 33.01% for a draw, and 28.58% for a Corinthians win. Despite Vasco da Gama being the slight favorite, the gap between the teams is not significant, as reflected in the probabilities.

Team Performance and Stats

In their last three matches, Vasco da Gama played as follows: December 18th - Corinthians vs Vasco da Gama - 0-0, December 14th - Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama - 4-4, December 11th - Vasco da Gama vs Fluminense - 2-1. Corinthians' recent results are: December 18th - Corinthians vs Vasco da Gama - 0-0, December 14th - Corinthians vs Cruzeiro - 6-6, December 11th - Cruzeiro vs Corinthians - 0-1. Over the last five matches, Vasco da Gama averaged 48.6% possession, 1.8 yellow cards, 11.6 fouls, and 0.6 offsides. Corinthians averaged 54.2% possession, 2.4 yellow cards, 15.2 fouls, and 1.6 offsides. Their last head-to-head on December 18th ended in a 0-0 draw.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Over the last five games, Vasco da Gama's average total goals were 2.2, with 0.4 scored and 1.8 conceded. Corinthians averaged 1.8 total goals, with 0.8 scored and 1 conceded. Both teams saw over 2.5 goals in 2 out of 5 matches, and under 2.5 in 3 out of 5. In the first half, Vasco da Gama had over 1.5 goals once in 5 matches, while Corinthians had none. In the second half, over 1.5 goals occurred 3 times for Vasco da Gama and 2 times for Corinthians. Vasco da Gama most frequently scores between the 31st-45th, 46th-60th, and 61st-75th minutes (25% each). Corinthians most often scores between the 46th-60th minutes (50%). For goals conceded, Vasco da Gama has three intervals with equal percentages - 16th-30th, 61st-75th, and 76th-90th (33% each), while Corinthians' distribution is even across five intervals (20% each). Given the low scoring nature of both teams, frequent under 2.5 goal outcomes, and low averages for goals scored, betting on under 2.5 goals at 1.44 appears to be a logical choice.

Corner Totals Analysis

Vasco da Gama averages 6.6 corners per match, while Corinthians averages 5.2. Over a series of five games, the over 9.5 corners bet succeeded 3 times for both teams. Considering the 9.5 corners total, the odds are 1.63 for over and 2.06 for under. Vasco da Gama is the favorite for corners with odds of 1.63. Based on the teams' average stats, betting on over 9.5 corners seems justified, given the frequency and high averages for corners.