Prediction for match Vasco da Gama — Gremio

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

Vasco da Gama and Gremio will face off on March 22 in Brazil's Serie A, with bookmakers favoring Vasco da Gama. The odds for a Vasco da Gama win are 2.05, a draw is at 3.34, and a Gremio victory is priced at 3.94. According to the probabilities derived from these odds, Vasco da Gama has a 46.86% chance of winning, Gremio has 24.38%, and a draw is at 28.76%. This setup shows Vasco da Gama's edge in the odds, but a draw is also considered quite likely. The lines also highlight bets on totals, with Over 2.5 goals priced at 1.90 and Under 2.5 at 1.94, indicating balanced expectations regarding goal-scoring.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Vasco da Gama recorded the following results: March 19 - Vasco da Gama 3-2 Fluminense, March 15 - Cruzeiro 3-3 Vasco da Gama, March 12 - Vasco da Gama 2-1 Palmeiras. Gremio's last three games were: March 19 - Gremio 2-0 Vitoria, March 16 - Chapecoense 1-1 Gremio, March 13 - Gremio 1-1 RB Bragantino. On average, over their last five games, Vasco da Gama had 49% possession, committed 11.4 fouls, was caught offside 1.4 times, and received 2 yellow cards. Gremio's stats are: 50.6% possession, 13.6 fouls, 1.2 offsides, and 2.8 yellow cards. In their last head-to-head on November 20, 2025, Gremio defeated Vasco da Gama 2-0.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Vasco da Gama has been in high-scoring form over their last five matches, averaging a total of 3.8 goals per game, scoring 2, and conceding 1.8 per match. Gremio has been more conservative, averaging 2.2 goals per game, scoring 1.2, and conceding 1. Vasco da Gama's games went over 2.5 goals in 4 out of 5 matches, while Gremio only saw 1 out of 5. In the first half, Vasco da Gama had 2 out of 5 matches with two or more goals, while Gremio had 1 out of 5. In the second half, Vasco da Gama showed 4 out of 5 on over 1.5 goals, with Gremio at 2 out of 5. Goal intervals show Vasco da Gama scoring most frequently between the 61st-75th and 76th-90th minutes (33% each) and conceding between the 31st-45th and 46th-60th minutes (33% each). Gremio scores equally between the 16th-30th and 46th-60th minutes (33% each) and concedes most often between the 31st-45th, 46th-60th, and 61st-75th minutes (33% each). Overall, Vasco da Gama consistently plays in high-scoring matches, while Gremio tends to have lower-scoring games but lacks defensive solidity. Given Vasco da Gama's high-scoring trend and their 4 out of 5 over 2.5 goals streak, the bet on Over 2.5 goals at 1.90 seems logical.

Corners Total Analysis

Vasco da Gama averages 5.2 corners per game, while Gremio averages 4.4, totaling 9.6. For the Over 9.5 corners total, Vasco da Gama achieved this in 2 out of 5 matches, and Gremio in 1 out of 5. The line closest to the average sum is the 9.5 total: over 9.5 is at 1.80, under 9.5 at 1.95. Vasco da Gama is favored in the corners market with odds of 1.48. Considering both teams' average corner activity, betting on over 9.5 corners is justified, and Vasco da Gama's edge in corner count can also be considered.