Prediction for match Villarreal — Real Madrid, 24.01.2026

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match

Villarreal will face Real Madrid on January 24 in La Liga. Bookmakers have priced a Real Madrid win at 2.09, a victory for Villarreal at 3.52, and a draw at 3.94. The probability percentages are as follows: 47.08% for a Real Madrid win, 27.95% for Villarreal, and 24.97% for a draw. Real Madrid is the favorite according to the odds and probabilities, but Villarreal is not far off from a draw.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Villarreal lost to Ajax 1-2, were defeated by Real Betis 0-2, and beat Alaves 3-1. In the same period, Real Madrid thrashed Monaco 6-1, defeated Levante 2-0, and lost to Albacete 2-3. In their last head-to-head on October 4, 2025, Real Madrid triumphed over Villarreal 3-1. According to secondary statistics, Villarreal averages 33.2% possession, 1.8 yellow cards, 11 fouls, and 2.6 offsides per game over five matches. Real Madrid shows 54.8% possession, 1.8 yellows, 10.4 fouls, and 0.4 offsides per match. Real Madrid has significantly higher possession and fewer offsides, indicating a more organized attack.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Villarreal has an average total of 3 goals per game over a five-match span, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.6 per match. Real Madrid's figures are higher: 4.4 goals on average per game, with 2.8 scored and 1.6 conceded. Villarreal played over 2.5 goals in 3 out of 5, while Real Madrid did so in 4 out of 5. In the first half, Villarreal recorded over 1.5 goals only once out of five, Real Madrid did it three times. In the second half, Villarreal exceeded 1.5 goals three times, Real Madrid four times out of five. For goal intervals, Villarreal most frequently scores between the 46th and 60th minutes (57%), and concedes most often in the 0-15 and 76-90 minute intervals (38% each). Real Madrid also scores most frequently in the 46-60 minute interval (27%), while conceding most often in the 31-45 minute range (43%). Overall, both teams tend to have high-scoring second halves, and Real Madrid consistently scores a lot. Against this background, a bet on over 2.75 goals at 1.54 seems logical: both teams have a pronounced over-profile, especially Real Madrid, with support from time intervals and total passages.

Corners: Numbers and Potential Bets

Villarreal averages 3.6 corners over five matches, Real Madrid 7.2. For the frequency of over 9.5 corners, Villarreal has 2 out of 5, Real Madrid 4 out of 5. The combined average for both teams is 10.8 corners per game. For a total of 9.5, both odds are available: over 9.5 is priced at 1.80, under 9.5 at 1.95. Real Madrid is the favorite on corners with odds of 1.68. Considering both teams' statistics and Real Madrid's frequent overs, a bet on over 9.5 corners looks justified. You can also consider Real Madrid's individual corner stats, given their average of 7.2 per match.