Prediction for match Wellington Phoenix — Melbourne Victory

Odds and Match Outcome Probabilities

The match between Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne Victory in the A-League is set for February 6, 2026. The odds for the outcomes are as follows: Wellington Phoenix to win is at 3.29, a draw is priced at 3.86, and a Melbourne Victory win is at 2.11. According to the probability percentages, Melbourne Victory has a 45.70% chance, Wellington Phoenix 29.31%, and a draw 24.98%. This suggests a slight edge for Melbourne Victory before the match, though the gap between the teams isn't significant, potentially leading to an open game with chances for both sides.

Team Results and Statistics

Wellington Phoenix averages 45.2% possession over their last five matches, with an average of 1 yellow card, 7.4 fouls, and 1.6 offsides per game. Melbourne Victory maintains 55.6% possession, receives 2.2 yellow cards, commits 8.6 fouls, and 2.4 offsides. In their last three matches, Wellington Phoenix had the following results: January 30 - Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne City - 2-2, January 23 - Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix - 4-1, January 18 - Sydney vs Wellington Phoenix - 0-2. Melbourne Victory's last three matches were: February 1 - Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne Victory - 1-0, January 26 - Melbourne Victory vs Sydney - 4-0, January 17 - Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory - 2-1. In their last head-to-head on December 29, 2025, Melbourne Victory defeated Wellington Phoenix 5-1.

Teams' Scoring Streaks

Offensively, Wellington Phoenix averages 2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game over their last five matches, with a total average of 3.6 goals per game. Melbourne Victory averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with a total average of 2.8. Wellington Phoenix has seen over 2.5 goals in 4 out of 5 matches, while Melbourne Victory has 3 out of 5. Both teams rarely exceed 1.5 goals in the first half - just once in 5 games. In the second half, Wellington Phoenix has over 1.5 goals in 4 out of 5, and Melbourne Victory in 3 out of 5. Wellington Phoenix most frequently scores between the 46th and 60th minutes (33%) and concedes in the final minutes - 76th to 90th (30%). Melbourne Victory often scores between the 76th and 90th minutes (30%) and concedes evenly across all quarters, 25% in each of the four intervals. Given both teams' consistent scoring, frequent over 2.5 goals, and second-half activity, a bet on over 2.5 goals at 1.69 seems logical.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Wellington Phoenix averages 3.6 corners over the last five matches, while Melbourne Victory averages 8.2. The total corners exceeded 9.5 in 3 out of 5 matches for both teams. The closest average total corners is 11.5, with odds of 2.39 for over and 1.47 for under. Melbourne Victory is favored in corners with odds of 1.65. Given Melbourne Victory's high activity in corner kicks, it's reasonable to expect them to dominate this aspect again, with the total corners likely reaching 11-12.