Prediction for match Alaves — Villarreal

Odds and Probabilities for the Match Outcome

On Friday, March 13, Alaves will face Villarreal in La Liga. According to the bookmakers, Villarreal is favored to win, with odds of 2.20, while both a victory for Alaves and a draw are priced at 3.56. In terms of probabilities, an Alaves win and a draw are both estimated at 27.64%, while Villarreal's chances of victory are 44.72%. Thus, Villarreal is the clear favorite in this matchup, as indicated by both the odds and probability distribution.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Alaves has an average possession of 54%, with 3.2 yellow cards, 16.8 fouls, and 1.4 offsides per game. During the same period, Villarreal has recorded 40.6% possession, 2.2 yellow cards, 12 fouls, and 2 offsides. Looking at Alaves' last three games: March 8 - Valencia 3-2 Alaves, February 27 - Levante 2-0 Alaves, February 23 - Alaves 2-2 Girona. Villarreal's last three results are: March 8 - Villarreal 2-1 Elche, February 28 - Barcelona 4-1 Villarreal, February 22 - Villarreal 2-1 Valencia. The last encounter between these teams was on January 10, 2026: Villarreal 3-1 Alaves.

Goals Statistics

In terms of scoring, both teams have an identical average of 3 total goals per game in their last five matches. Alaves scores 1 and concedes 2, while Villarreal scores 1.4 and concedes 1.6. Alaves has seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their 5 games, whereas Villarreal has in 4 of 5. In the first half, Alaves has only 1 out of 5 matches with two or more goals, while Villarreal has 3 out of 5. In the second half, Alaves has 4 out of 5 over 1.5, Villarreal 2 out of 5. In terms of goal intervals, Alaves most frequently scores between the 76th and 90th minute (63%), and concedes most often from the 61st to 75th minute (43%). Villarreal scores most frequently between the 31st and 45th minute (60%) and concedes in two intervals - 46th to 60th and 76th to 90th minutes (40% each). Based on this data, a high-scoring match is expected, with both teams likely to score, and the over 2.5 goals is supported by Villarreal's stats and average goals. The odds for over 2.5 goals are 2.08.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Alaves averages 4.8 corners in their last five matches, Villarreal 3.4. For the over 9.5 corners total, Alaves has 3 out of 5 games, Villarreal 1 out of 5. Looking at the corners total line, for 8.5, both options are available: over 8.5 at 1.57, under 8.5 at 2.19. Alaves is the favorite for corners with odds of 1.85. Considering both teams' average figures, betting on over 8.5 corners seems justified, especially given Alaves' recent activity in delivering corners.