Prediction for match America de Cali — Alianza Atletico

Match Analysis: America de Cali vs Alianza Atletico

On April 16, in the Sudamericana tournament, America de Cali will face off against Alianza Atletico. The odds for the match outcomes are as follows: America de Cali win is at 1.38, a draw is priced at 4.50, and an Alianza Atletico victory is offered at 7.90. In terms of probability, America de Cali's win is estimated at 67.51%, a draw at 20.70%, and Alianza Atletico's chances of winning at 11.79%. This indicates a significant advantage for America de Cali, but the odds on totals and other markets are also worth considering.

Team Performance and Stats

In their last five matches, America de Cali has maintained an average possession of 58.4%, received 3.2 yellow cards, committed 10.4 fouls, and recorded 1.8 offsides per game. Alianza Atletico trails in ball control with 52%, with fewer yellow cards (2.2), fouls (7.6), and more offsides (3). In their last three games, America de Cali played as follows: April 10 - Macara 1-1 America de Cali, April 5 - Cucuta 2-0 America de Cali, April 2 - America de Cali 2-0 Bucaramanga. Alianza Atletico's last three matches were: April 8 - Alianza Atletico 1-1 Tigre, April 3 - Alianza Atletico 2-2 Atletico Grau, March 22 - UTC 1-1 Alianza Atletico. There are no head-to-head records between these teams in the current data set.

How Many Goals to Expect?

Over the last five matches, America de Cali averages 1.8 goals per game, while Alianza Atletico averages 3. America de Cali scores 0.8 and concedes 1, whereas Alianza Atletico scores 1.6 and concedes 1.4. Regarding over 2.5 goals: only 1 of America de Cali's 5 matches was high-scoring, compared to 3 out of 5 for Alianza Atletico. In the first half, over 1.5 goals occurred for America de Cali twice and once for Alianza Atletico. In the second half, only 1 of America de Cali's 5 games was high-scoring, compared to 3 out of 5 for Alianza Atletico. Goal intervals show America de Cali most frequently scores between 76-90 minutes (43%) and concedes between 16-30 minutes (67%). Alianza Atletico often scores between 31-45 and 61-75 minutes (30% each) and concedes at the end of the match (76-90 minutes - 40%). Despite America de Cali's relatively low scoring, Alianza Atletico maintains an over-profile, with an average of 3 goals in their matches. This makes the over 2.5 goals at 1.89 a logical choice, considering Alianza Atletico's attacking dynamics and both teams' defensive vulnerabilities in the second half.

Corner Totals Analysis

America de Cali averages 5.6 corners in their last five matches, while Alianza Atletico averages 4.2. For over 9.5 corners, both teams had 2 out of 5 matches exceeding this mark. Among the available corner totals, the line closest to the combined average (9.8) is 9.5: over 9.5 corners is at 2.47, under 9.5 at 1.48. America de Cali is the favorite for corners with odds of 1.31. Considering both teams' average activity in creating chances and earning set-pieces, betting on over 9.5 corners seems justified, especially given both teams' ability to generate opportunities and win set-pieces.