Prediction for match Arsenal — Burnley

Odds and Probability Percentages for the Match Outcome

In the Premier League clash between Arsenal and Burnley on May 18, bookmakers are giving Burnley little chance. Arsenal's victory is priced at 1.10, a draw at 13.20, and a Burnley win at 35.00. The probabilities for the outcomes are distributed as follows: Arsenal - 89.71%, draw - 7.48%, Burnley - 2.82%. Such odds and percentages highlight Arsenal as the clear favorite. Other markets with odds over 1.50, such as totals and individual performances, are also worth considering given the recent statistics of both teams.

Team Results and Statistics

Over the last five matches, Arsenal has maintained 53.2% possession, averaged 1.2 yellow cards, committed 10.2 fouls, and been caught offside 2.2 times per game. Burnley, in the same period, has had 43.4% possession, 1.6 yellow cards, 11.4 fouls, and 1.6 offsides. In their last three matches, Arsenal defeated West Ham 1-0 (10.05.2026), Atletico Madrid 1-0 (05.05.2026), and Fulham 3-0 (02.05.2026). Burnley drew 2-2 with Aston Villa (10.05.2026), lost to Leeds 1-3 (01.05.2026), and to Manchester City 0-1 (22.04.2026). The last meeting between the teams was on November 1, 2025, with Arsenal winning 2-0.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In terms of totals over the last five matches, Arsenal has gone over 2.5 only once, with four matches under. Burnley has three matches over 2.5 and two under. Arsenal's average goals per match is 1.6, with the team scoring 1.4 and conceding just 0.2 per game. Burnley's average total goals is considerably higher at 3.2, but they score only 0.8 and concede 2.4. By halves, Arsenal has gone over 1.5 goals in the first half once and never in the second half. Burnley has one first-half over 1.5 and three out of five in the second half. Arsenal most frequently scores and concedes between the 31-45 minute mark (50%), while Burnley most often scores between 46-60 minutes (33%) and concedes between 31-45 minutes (43%). Considering Arsenal's low scoring and Burnley's weak attack, betting on Burnley's individual total under 0.5 at odds of 1.52 seems logical.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Arsenal averages 3.8 corners per match, Burnley 3.2. Over the last five games, Arsenal has not gone over 9.5 total corners, while Burnley has in three out of five. The line closest to the average total (7.0) is 7.5: over 7.5 corners is priced at 1.13, under 7.5 at 4.86. Arsenal is the favorite on corners at 1.05 odds. Given the average activity of both teams, betting on under 9.5 total corners seems justified, considering Arsenal hasn't gone over 9.5 in their last five matches.