Prediction for match Atletico Madrid — Barcelona

Match Analysis: Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona

In the Copa del Rey on February 12, 2026, Atletico Madrid will face Barcelona. According to the odds, Barcelona is the favorite: a win for Barcelona is priced at 2.19, while a victory for Atletico Madrid is at 3.12, and a draw is at 3.94. The probabilities of outcomes are distributed as follows: 31.09% for an Atletico Madrid win, 24.62% for a draw, and 44.29% for a Barcelona win. This setup reflects Barcelona's advantage in odds and percentages, but Atletico Madrid is not a clear underdog by the numbers.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Atletico Madrid lost to Real Betis 0-1 on February 8, thrashed Real Betis 5-0 on February 5, and drew 0-0 with Levante on January 31. Barcelona comfortably defeated Mallorca 3-0 on February 7, Albacete 2-1 on February 3, and Elche 3-1 on January 31. On average, in the last five games, Atletico Madrid has 60.8% possession, receives 1.6 yellow cards, commits 10.8 fouls, and has 3.2 offsides per match. Barcelona shows an even higher possession percentage at 72%, with 0.8 yellow cards, 10.2 fouls, and 1.4 offsides. In their last head-to-head meeting on December 2, 2025, Barcelona defeated Atletico Madrid 3-1.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In a five-match series, Atletico Madrid has an average total of 2.4 goals per match, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.6. Barcelona's figures are even higher: 3.6 goals on average per game, with 3 scored and 0.6 conceded. Atletico Madrid has exceeded the 2.5 total goals line in 3 out of 5 matches, and Barcelona in all 5. In terms of halves, Atletico Madrid exceeded 1.5 total goals in the first half 2 out of 5 times, and also 2 out of 5 in the second half. Barcelona exceeded 1.5 total goals only 1 out of 5 in the first half, but 4 out of 5 in the second half. Atletico Madrid most frequently scores in four different periods: 0-15, 16-30, 61-75, and 76-90 minutes (25% each). Barcelona most often scores in the 46-60 minute interval (33%). For goals conceded, Atletico Madrid stands out in the 16-30 and 31-45 minute intervals (25% each), while Barcelona in the 0-15 and 31-45 minute intervals (33% each). High average figures for goals scored and conceded, as well as consistent over 2.5 totals for both teams, especially Barcelona, make an over 2.75 total bet at 1.48 a logical consideration for this match.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

Atletico Madrid averages 8.2 corners per match, Barcelona 9.2. In the last five matches, both teams exceeded 9.5 total corners 4 out of 5 times. Among all corner totals, the line closest to the average sum of corners (17.4) is 10.5: over 10.5 total corners is priced at 2.03, under 10.5 at 1.90. For the corner outcome, Atletico Madrid is favored at 2.05. Given the high average figures, a bet on over 10.5 total corners seems justified, and individual team corner totals could also be considered.