Prediction for match Atletico Mineiro — Vasco da Gama

Odds and Probabilities for the Match Outcome

In Brazil's Serie A on December 7, Atletico Mineiro will face Vasco da Gama. The odds for an Atletico Mineiro win are 1.78, a draw is priced at 3.76, and a Vasco da Gama victory is at 4.68. The probabilities are distributed as follows: 53.94% for an Atletico Mineiro win, 25.54% for a draw, and 20.52% for Vasco da Gama. Atletico Mineiro is considered the favorite by the bookmakers, but the difference in percentage between a draw and a Vasco da Gama win is not very large. Based on these numbers, bookmakers lean towards an Atletico Mineiro success, but Vasco da Gama should not be completely dismissed.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, Atletico Mineiro has averaged 51.4% possession, 1.6 yellow cards, 12.6 fouls, and 1 offside per game. Vasco da Gama has identical possession at 51.4%, slightly higher yellow cards at 2.2, 14.6 fouls, and also 1 offside. In Atletico Mineiro's last three matches: December 4 - Atletico Mineiro 0-3 Palmeiras, November 30 - Fortaleza 1-0 Atletico Mineiro, November 26 - Atletico Mineiro 1-1 Flamengo. Vasco da Gama's last three games: December 2 - Vasco da Gama 0-2 Mirassol, November 28 - Vasco da Gama 5-1 Internacional, November 23 - Bahia 1-0 Vasco da Gama. The last head-to-head meeting was on August 10: Vasco da Gama 1-1 Atletico Mineiro.

How Many Goals Will Be in the Atletico Mineiro vs Vasco da Gama Match

Looking at goal scoring, Atletico Mineiro's average total goals over the last 5 games is 1.6, scoring on average 0.2 and conceding 1.4. Vasco da Gama is noticeably more prolific in the same period: 3.2 goals on average per match, with 1.2 scored and 2 conceded. For over 2.5 goals, Atletico Mineiro has 1 out of 5 matches over, while Vasco da Gama has 3 out of 5. In the first half, Atletico Mineiro has 1 out of 5 over 1.5, while Vasco da Gama has 2 out of 5. In the second half, Atletico Mineiro has 1 out of 5 over 1.5, while Vasco da Gama has 3 out of 5. Atletico Mineiro most frequently scores between the 31-45 and 46-60 minute intervals (both at 50%), while Vasco da Gama scores most in the 61-75 minute interval (30%). Atletico Mineiro concedes most in the 76-90 minute interval (50%), while Vasco da Gama concedes most between 31-45 minutes (50%). Overall, Atletico Mineiro has low scoring, while Vasco da Gama has above-average scoring but notable defensive vulnerabilities. Given Atletico Mineiro's low scoring and the fact that under 2.5 goals occurred in 4 out of 5, a bet on under 2.5 goals seems logical, with odds at 1.90.

Analysis of Corner Totals

For corners, Atletico Mineiro averages 5 per game over 5 matches, while Vasco da Gama averages 4.8. The total of over 9.5 corners was recorded 3 times out of 5 for both teams. Looking at the odds, over 9.5 is priced at 1.74, under 9.5 at 1.95. Based on average values and frequency, a bet on over 9.5 corners seems justified, considering both teams regularly deliver 5 or more per game. Atletico Mineiro is the favorite on corners with odds at 1.41. Overall, the match promises to be rich in corners, and a bet on the over is closer to optimal.