Prediction for match Atletico Paranaense — Gremio

Match Analysis: Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio

On May 2nd, in the Brazilian Serie A, Atletico Paranaense will face Gremio. According to the 1X2 odds, bookmakers favor Atletico Paranaense: their victory is priced at 2.07, a draw at 3.38, and a Gremio win at 3.81. The probabilities are distributed as follows: Atletico Paranaense win - 46.39%, draw - 28.41%, Gremio win - 25.20%. These figures reflect Atletico Paranaense's advantage, though the gap is not overwhelming, and a draw is also considered quite likely. The odds for total goals are 1.81 for under 2.5 and 2.04 for over 2.5, indicating expectations for a low-scoring game.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last three matches, Atletico Paranaense played as follows: April 26, 2026 - Atletico Paranaense vs Vitoria - 3-1, April 24, 2026 - Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico Goianiense - 0-0, April 19, 2026 - Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense - 1-0. During the same period, Gremio played these matches: April 30, 2026 - Palestino vs Gremio - 0-0, April 26, 2026 - Gremio vs Coritiba - 1-0, April 21, 2026 - Gremio vs Confianca - 2-0. In their last head-to-head encounter, on August 4, 2024, Atletico Paranaense lost to Gremio 0-2. In additional statistics over a five-game period, Atletico Paranaense averages 56% possession, commits 15.8 fouls, is caught offside 1.4 times, and receives 3 yellow cards per game. Gremio has higher possession at 64.4%, 12.2 fouls, 1.8 offsides, and 2.4 yellow cards. Both teams show discipline, but Atletico Paranaense commits more fouls.

How Many Goals Will Be in the Match Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio

In the last five matches, Atletico Paranaense's games went over 2.5 goals twice and under three times. All five of Gremio's matches ended under 2.5 goals. The average number of goals in Atletico Paranaense's matches is 2, while for Gremio it's 1.2. In terms of goals scored: Atletico Paranaense - 1.2, Gremio - 0.8. In terms of goals conceded: Atletico Paranaense - 0.8, Gremio - 0.4. In the first half, only 1 out of 5 Atletico Paranaense's games had over 1.5 goals, while Gremio had none. In the second half, Atletico Paranaense had 3 out of 5 over 1.5, while Gremio had 2 out of 5. Atletico Paranaense most frequently scores late (76-90 minutes - 50%), and concedes either between 16-30 minutes or late (50% each). Gremio scores most often between 46-75 minutes (33% in each of the two intervals), and concedes exclusively between 16-30 minutes (100%). These indicators suggest low scoring for Gremio and a restrained attack from Atletico Paranaense, making a bet on under 2.5 goals a logical choice.

Corners in the Match

On average, Atletico Paranaense earns 5 corners per game, while Gremio earns 5.2. In the last five matches, both teams had over 9.5 total corners in 2 out of 5 games. Considering the total corners of 9.5, both teams show similar stats, and the odds for this total are: over 9.5 - 2.09, under 9.5 - 1.72. In this situation, a bet on total corners closer to 9-10 seems justified, but there is no strong bias towards an over-profile. Statistics suggest both teams can aim for 5-6 corners per match, as confirmed by their series.