Prediction for match AZ Alkmaar — Ajax

Match Analysis: AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax

On February 8th, in the Eredivisie, AZ Alkmaar will face Ajax. The odds for an AZ Alkmaar win are 2.24, for an Ajax victory 3.06, and a draw is priced at 3.72. Based on the implied probabilities, AZ Alkmaar has a 42.84% chance of winning, a draw is at 25.80%, and Ajax has a 31.36% chance. Thus, AZ Alkmaar holds a slight edge according to the odds and probabilities, but Ajax is far from being the clear underdog. The betting line for this match also offers a wide range of total goals and both teams to score options, highlighting the expectation of a high-scoring game.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, AZ Alkmaar has averaged 50.4% possession, received 2.6 yellow cards, committed 12.8 fouls, and been caught offside 1.4 times per game. Ajax's averages include 58.4% possession, 1 yellow card, 9.4 fouls, and 1 offside. AZ Alkmaar's recent results are: 2-1 against Twente (03.02.2026), 1-3 with NEC Nijmegen (31.01.2026), 1-0 against Telstar (25.01.2026). Ajax's recent matches include: 2-2 with Excelsior (01.02.2026), 1-2 against Olympiacos (28.01.2026), 2-0 with Volendam (24.01.2026). In their last head-to-head on January 14, 2026, AZ Alkmaar thrashed Ajax 6-0.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In their last five matches, AZ Alkmaar averages 2.8 goals per game, while Ajax averages 3.2. For goals scored: AZ Alkmaar averages 1.2, Ajax 1.8, and for goals conceded: 1.6 and 1.4 respectively. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 3 of AZ Alkmaar's last five matches and in 4 of Ajax's. In terms of halves, AZ Alkmaar saw over 1.5 goals twice in the first half and twice in the second, while Ajax saw it three times in the first half and four times in the second. AZ Alkmaar most frequently scores between 0-15 minutes (33%), and Ajax in the same 0-15 minutes (25%) and 61-75 minutes (25%). For goals conceded, AZ Alkmaar is most vulnerable in the 0-15, 61-75, and 76-90 minute intervals (29% each), while Ajax concedes most often in the 46-60, 61-75, and 76-90 minute intervals (25% each). The expectation of a high-scoring game is supported by the frequency of over 2.5 goals occurring in both teams' last five matches, with average goals for both exceeding 2.5. Based on this data, a bet on over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.62 seems justified.

Corners: Numbers and Possible Bets

AZ Alkmaar earns an average of 4.6 corners per match, while Ajax earns 4.4, totaling 9 corners. In the last five matches, over 9.5 corners occurred twice for both teams. Among the available corner totals, over 9.5 is priced at 1.84, and under 9.5 is also at 1.84. AZ Alkmaar is the favorite for the corner outcome with odds of 1.73. While there is no strong reason to expect a large number of corners, a bet on around 9.5 corners seems logical, considering both teams' averages and the frequency of this total in recent matches.