Prediction for match AZ Alkmaar — Excelsior

Match Analysis: AZ Alkmaar vs Excelsior

AZ Alkmaar and Excelsior will face off on January 21 in the Eredivisie. The 1X2 odds clearly favor AZ Alkmaar: their win is priced at 1.31, a draw at 5.87, and Excelsior's victory at 9.30. The probability of an AZ Alkmaar win is 73.31%, a draw is 16.36%, and an Excelsior win is 10.33%. These figures highlight a clear advantage for AZ Alkmaar, which is supported by the teams' past encounters. In their last five head-to-head matches, AZ Alkmaar won four times with a significant margin, including an 8-0 thrashing in the summer of 2024. This season, both teams have shown different levels of scoring ability, which is also reflected in the odds for totals and individual performances.

Team Results and Statistics

In their last five matches, AZ Alkmaar has an average possession rate of 54.4%, receives 1.4 yellow cards per game, commits 11.6 fouls, and records 0.8 offsides. Excelsior's possession is 49.8%, with 2.2 yellow cards, 12.6 fouls, and 1.6 offsides. In their last three games, AZ Alkmaar played as follows: January 17 - Zwolle 3-1 AZ Alkmaar, January 14 - AZ Alkmaar 6-0 Ajax, January 10 - AZ Alkmaar 1-0 Volendam. During the same period, Excelsior's matches were: January 17 - Excelsior 2-2 Telstar, January 10 - PSV 5-1 Excelsior, December 20 - Excelsior 2-1 Zwolle. The last head-to-head meeting was on July 13, 2024, ending in an 8-0 victory for AZ Alkmaar.

How Many Goals to Expect?

In the last five matches, both teams have seen over 2.5 goals scored in three games. AZ Alkmaar averages 3.6 goals per game, while Excelsior averages 3.2. In terms of first-half goals, AZ Alkmaar had three out of five matches with two or more goals, whereas Excelsior had only one out of five. In the second half, both teams recorded over 1.5 goals three times out of five. Regarding scoring intervals, AZ Alkmaar most frequently scores between 0-15 minutes (29%) and 76-90 minutes (29%). Excelsior most often scored between 16-30 minutes (30%). In terms of conceding goals, AZ Alkmaar was most vulnerable between 16-30 and 61-75 minutes (40% each), while Excelsior was most vulnerable between 46-60 minutes (50%). Given the high scoring nature of both teams and the frequent occurrence of over 2.5 goals, it is reasonable to expect a high-scoring match. An optimal bet would be on over 3.0 goals at 1.53, considering the average goals scored by both teams exceed 3.0, along with frequent overs in halves.

Corners: Figures and Possible Bets

AZ Alkmaar averages 6.8 corners per match, and Excelsior 3.2, totaling 10. In the last five matches, both teams have seen the total corners exceed 9.5 three times. Among the available corner totals, the line closest to the average figures is 9.5: over 9.5 corners is priced at 1.70, under 9.5 at 2.01. AZ Alkmaar is favored in the corners market with odds of 1.10. Considering the average activity of both teams and the frequent occurrence of over 9.5 corners, a bet on over 9.5 corners seems justified. Individual corner stats for AZ Alkmaar are also worth considering, given their high average performance in this component.